Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Why Has Gold Price Not Skyrocketed ?

The problems of 2008 were never fixed, just pasted over with more fiat. Can't print your way to prosperity

People aren’t paniced enough for metal prices to really rise. Usually when they go up a lot it’s befause people either fear inflation or an apocalypse. I think the consensus is more that in 6 months things will pretty much be back to normal

I have no gold, I do have lead...I'm ok with that...

True^^^^
the thing is you don't want gold to go parabolic... that would mean an economic collapse

Gold is a proven hedge in inflationary times though.

We had as sound of an economy as has existed and still do relative to the rest of the world. There will obviously be contraction as long as we artificially stop the economy but it will recover quickly and I expect it to be stronger within a year of the end of the effects of the pandemic. As we bring some of our manufacturing home available dollars for trade will be even more restricted and dollar value will raise.

Should A nation's debt be factored into the overall health of its economy? I don't enough to answer this question completely.

Absolutely it should.

Well that's a separate issue, I'm just responding to the "real-world" thinking of the OP's question.

In the land of blind, the one eyed man is king. I don't think anything changes the US as a reserve currency for a long time. China is a lying cheat and the world knows it. EU if fugged, I guess there is always zimbabwe , they seem pretty solid

This China virus might very well bankrupt Italy, Spain, and a handful more EU countries, they are pretty close to edge as it is.

Yes.

That's why I answered the way I did.

Everyone on this forum seems to think Trump is the conservative's super-hero, but his tax cuts made the debt worse. He is no conservative, just an alternative.

He never has been. But they don't seem to notice.

I think part of the drop of gold and silver is that it is used in almost all of our electronic devices. If the demand for them goes down so will the demand for both of them. The parallel drop could be considered "economic capitulation" which happened after 911 and the '08 mortgage crash. You can't put Trump into any political label other than pro-America. That's good enough for me.

The lesson to be learned from this by the world is that giving up control of your money supply as a country like the Europeans have done with the Euro is brain dead stupid. The lack of liquidity and the ability to inject liquidity is going to collapse the weaker southern countries economies and will end the European Union. The whole of the Europe is [bleep] by chaining the the economies together in monetary policy. What’s good for the Germans and Dutch is poison for the Italians and Spanish and possibly even the French.

Debt is caused by borrowing more than you have and spending above your means, not tax cuts. If you are going to blame Trump for debt, then blame him for signing on to record level spending, not tax cuts. Go look up base line budgeting, its been going on for decades, both parties of which are responsible.

Fed debt closing in on $30 trillion +, consumer debt over $14 trillion +, corp debt $19 trillion +, future unfunded liabilities in excess of $200 trillion.

What were you saying about a sound economy?

You get it ! It’s just a commodity with limited usefulness. You also get Trump.

Completely meaningless.

Yeah, sure.

AOC thinks the same, ....and she even got a degree in modern economics theory.

So long as the WORLD economy continues to grow at a pace that the demand for dollars doesn’t fall behind US debt issuance it’s meaningless. If it does it will spark dollar inflation and that will be temporarily painful but will wipe out the value of US debt and the real economy will keep on going. Static investments will be wiped out but continuing business will come out stronger.

Opinion only: Gold markets are up and they are down. Whether they are up or down depends in large part, upon what central banks and large institutional banks want. The “paper market” rules and sets the price. The buyers of physical.... for delivery... gold... are generally “price takers” up in that they must “take” the paper price.

The physical market for coins, 100 oz and even 400 oz bars, is on fire right now. That is why a physical one oz coin commands a $180 per ounce premium over the “paper price.” Most European mints are shut down and the supply of coins and small bars is restricted.

Remember, there is no shortage of gold in the world. Banks have thousands of tonnes. If they want the price to go down, they can do a couple of things.... they could simple sell into supply and perhaps also drag the paper price down. If they want the price to go up, the same thing in reverse. They can also support or lower a country currency price.

There have been a number of factors contributing to the fall in the price mentioned in this thread. All have elements of correctness to them.

Banks and governments don’t want panic now, they do not want a rush to gold that will shatter the average joe’s confidence in the economy. Yes, we have deflation now, but those trillions and trillions we start to work into the economy and perhaps two things will happen.....a severe recession and joblessness for sure, but inflation as well. Then there will be huge demand for the financial security provided by gold and the price will rise, perhaps in dramatic fashion.

I talked with a gold dealer today. He reports he is making three times the number of monthly sales As opposed to four months ago. He also reports that the average buy might be $5000 to maybe $50,000. Now he is processing many orders of $250,000 and on up. But, he has run out of “normal “ coins for sale. This is why there is a premium over spot is way high.

So, I asked what is coming next. He said he did not know.... if the Coronavirus situation is handled well, maybe a modest rise. He said those folks out there wanting to buy $500,000 of gold are still there and will be hungry of gold for quite a spell. Demand for physical is strong.

But.... he agreed that inflation is on the way and some “private heavy hitters” are getting frustrated with lack of delivery.... ok, but what can they do? I was surprised by his answer....He said all it will take (to ignite a price skyrocket) is for some Arab sheik to say he is ready to take delivery of $2 billion of physical..... at $2000 per ounce.... It seems that a trigger like that is what ie required to shake the strangle hold of paper gold prices. Seems that the world has quite a few skittish multi billionaires.

I don’t understand all this. But, it seems to me that economic convulsions are coming..... cash, gold and real estate would seem to do well.

Some folks will say that the “paper gold” vs “physical” gold is a bogus thesis. I don’t hold to that. Seems a paper contract that does not yield delivery is nothing more than a derivative. The paper gold system seems to be like trading derivatives.

We’ll see.....