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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728833 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by JCMCUBIC
Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......



They will but will consumers have money to purchase in 3 months at same rate as before virus? That is the question. Concerned that some percentage of current lay offs could be permanent.

I can’t imagine that the consumer confidence or willingness to purchase on credit will miraculously rebound to the same level as January ‘20. I think this thing takes a while to play out - and some things are headed for a “new normal” I’m afraid.

BP-B2

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728838 03/31/20
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Everybody is talking about a new normal. Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are even uttering the "depression" word.

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728852 03/31/20
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I like to keep a few thousand ounces of silver just as an emergency fund or insurance against a currency collapse. I used to buy mostly eagles, maple leafs, and Philharmonics, but the last few years I've liked mercury dimes and walking liberty halves. Most people recognize them as silver and they would be easy to make change. The premiums in the stuff is crazy high right now and who knows when it will come down.

I say the time to pay off debt was the last few years. Right now don't spend on anything but necessities and keep some cash ready for deals. If you have money in retirement accounts use that to pick up some good solid stocks and or funds bit by bit as it drops. I think it may still drop more before it's done. I'm still thinking of buys as the dow hits 18k, 16k, 14k, and maybe even 12k if it gets there. Who knows maybe it won't drop again but once the virus levels off I'll probably put the retirement money in something.

My health has been on the decline for several years and Drs told me I wouldn't be able to work much longer so I started getting out of debt years ago and kicked it to high gear about 2014. Fortunately we have our house paid off and vehicles paid off. I regret spending savings to put solar on our home last year but I got a big tax credit and now our power bill is almost nothing except mid winter and then its substantially lower. Right now I think I'd rather have the cash.

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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728878 03/31/20
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They will still spend and borrow money.

Bet that they get the insurance on the loan as well.

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: AKwolverine] #14728893 03/31/20
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Betting a lot more credit card use before this clears up

The average balance on a credit card is now almost $6,200, and the typical American holds four credit cards, according to the credit bureau Experian. Credit card issuers are also giving Americans more room to run up debt, boosting the typical credit limit by 20% over the last decade to $31,000.Feb 12, 2020




Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by JCMCUBIC
Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......



They will but will consumers have money to purchase in 3 months at same rate as before virus? That is the question. Concerned that some percentage of current lay offs could be permanent.

I can’t imagine that the consumer confidence or willingness to purchase on credit will miraculously rebound to the same level as January ‘20. I think this thing takes a while to play out - and some things are headed for a “new normal” I’m afraid.

IC-A

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728911 03/31/20
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The average balance on a credit card is now almost $6,200, and the typical American holds four credit cards, according to the credit bureau Experian. Credit card issuers are also giving Americans more room to run up debt, boosting the typical credit limit by 20% over the last decade to $31,000.Feb 12, 2020

I'm WAYYYYYY below average and the people I know are as well. Never come close to that.


Me

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728915 03/31/20
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Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: AKwolverine] #14728983 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728989 03/31/20
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yep. I think the discretionary item manufacturers will take a big hit. Should have been more specific in my post

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.


Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14728990 03/31/20
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We are already in a recession, how long and how deep is the question. I think we will be down 30%, and it's going to be 6 months long. But full recovery will take 2-3 years. This corona thing is going to linger for another 12-18 months before we get a vaccine, The next 2-3 months are going to be wild on wall street while we sort this out.

Last edited by Stormin_Norman; 03/31/20.

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IC-B

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: AKCHOPPER] #14728991 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by AKCHOPPER
Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.


I'm thinking Johnson and Johnson and Proctor and Gamble are pretty safe bets. They may go down and maybe even cut their dividend for a while but when they come back it will be gang busters. IN other words, some dividend stocks are going to do better than others.

kwg


For liberals and anarchists, power and control is opium, selling envy is the fastest and easiest way to get it.
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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: kwg020] #14729039 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by kwg020
Originally Posted by AKCHOPPER
Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.


I'm thinking Johnson and Johnson and Proctor and Gamble are pretty safe bets. They may go down and maybe even cut their dividend for a while but when they come back it will be gang busters. IN other words, some dividend stocks are going to do better than others.

kwg


Im waiting to pick up more. Think the prices will drop with this quarter's earning reports come out or already factor into price?

Obviously a lot of companies are reducing their dividends temporarily which doesn't concern me. Long term is my concern.

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: ribka] #14729661 03/31/20
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He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


The key elements in human thinking are not numbers but labels of fuzzy sets. -- L. Zadeh

Which explains a lot.
Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: nighthawk] #14729934 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


Not true. Went in to Wally World today, lo and behold they had TP, paper towels, bottled water, bleach, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, them gawd awful TV dinners, beef and pig, veggies basically it wasn’t quite normal but pretty close. To my total amazement they had bricks of 22 LR on the shelf for 17.99. Sams club and local grocery chain was even better except for the 22’s. What shortage?



Swifty
Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: Swifty52] #14730017 03/31/20
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One of the problems of "investing" in toilet paper is most American households are already crammed full of, um, schidt. Most don't have room for a lot of fluffy paper....


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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: moosemike] #14730037 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by moosemike

I don't know. Eating out everyday and buying new trucks sounds perfect. And paycheck to paycheck is business as usual. laugh



You need to adjust your budget.

Last edited by prplbkrr; 03/31/20.
Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: nighthawk] #14730045 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


The mice love that schit.....


A good conservative will give you the shirt off his back.

A good liberal will give you the shirt off someone else's back.

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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: Swifty52] #14730061 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by Swifty52
Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


Not true. Went in to Wally World today, lo and behold they had TP, paper towels, bottled water, bleach, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, them gawd awful TV dinners, beef and pig, veggies basically it wasn’t quite normal but pretty close. To my total amazement they had bricks of 22 LR on the shelf for 17.99. Sams club and local grocery chain was even better except for the 22’s. What shortage?


Interesting.
I rarely do any in store shopping, but wife is away for awhile. Went to Walmart tdy and place was quite busy. Lots of tp, hamburger and other necessities. I did not notice any empty shelves. So it seemed business as usual, at least for that brief glimpse. Lots could happen yet.


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Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession [Re: hanco] #14730100 03/31/20
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Originally Posted by hanco
It is gonna get tough I believe. We have plenty food for now! There will be lots of things for sale before long!


And lots of it for sale will be toys, Hanco.

4 guys have already said that they won’t be renewing this coming year in the deer lease, others wanting to sell their shooting houses. Three want to sell their camps.

Sign of the present times but even this, too, will pass.


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