Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Coronavirus math. What am I missing?

39,201 deaths in the US.
Population 328200000
0.0001194424 death rate

CDC estimates 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season

24000÷328200000=0.0000731261
62000÷328200000=0.0001889092

Take the flu average of 43000
43000÷328200000=0.0001310176

I'm a historian, not a mathematician. What am I missing?

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but I'm starting to see how some people might believe that this is part of an ongoing effort to end the Trump presidency

Yep.....my wife has been saying from the beginning that this is just another attempt by the evil rulers to destroy the best President of our lifetime and I agree with her.

With barely anyone out and about it reminds me of how nice and peaceful life was 30 years ago. We could use a 50% reduction in the population, not through death necessarily but through deportations and “extraditions”. 😉

What you’re missing is this is an election year

makes you wonder if they dont have covid-20 all cued up for release for when Trump gets us all back to work ?

they'll say "he ordered us back too soon" ! .... in an attempt to claim the intellectual high ground and finish of his administration.

At this point my money is on "what ever the Chinese are up to , the democrats arent for behind."

It is more contagious but not more deadly.

What you are missing is that these aren’t just deaths, these Americans were killed by China’s rulers. It will take more investigation to determine how the Corona virus got out of the lab. However, it is the coverup by China’s government that kept it from being contained and allowed it to spread to countries all over the world. That coverup was intentional and premeditated.

Yep. Wouldn’t surprise me at all!!!

Yes that seems to sum it up.

Hospitals and states are getting government “assistance’ (money) based on how many “Corona virus deaths’ they record
Literally half of the Corona virus deaths are BS.

Someone has stage four lung cancer and the doctors give them a few weeks to live.
That person gets diagnosed with Corona virus, and a few weeks later they die.
Corona virus death

A Chicago drug dealer gets Corona virus, then gets shot to death by a rival drug dealer.
Corona virus death

Someone gets diagnosed and driving home fails to notice the red light. Dies in a car wreck.
Corona virus death

Diagnosed with Corona virus and then;
Dies of a massive heart attack
Falls off a latter
Drowns in a swimming pool
All recorded as “They had corona virus and they died”.

Trump is not giving us enough assistance (money), look at all these people who are dying !!!

I think the "doubling every 4 days" death proponents are falling way behind. glad for that. By their math we should be at 100,000 deaths today. reported, and I stress "reported" deaths are under 42,000.

This could turn into a popcorn thread!

You're missing comparative infection rate. The flu numbers reflect infection throughout the population (no quarantine, or widespread immunity throughout the population) we're still early in the Covid-19 pandemic and a much smaller number have been infected (or have immunity) than compared with the flu. The problem is we don't know the true lethality rate because we don't know how widespread CV-19 infection is. Is the lethality rate like the flu (.01% or one death per thousand) or is it 3.5% (35 deaths per thousand)? We don't know yet (for sure). But we should know within a few more weeks. That said, there is no doubt the Left (which includes the MSM) hope CV-19 brings this country to its knees.

I believe that is why they are now saying "Covis related deaths".

PREZACTLY!!!

Yep. And the key word there is “reported” deaths.

There is a huge difference in the real numbers of those who died "from" CV-19 and those who died "with" CV-19.

We're not being given accurate and complete data.

What you are missing is that your math is fugged up!

If you split the difference of the high and low estimate for 2019/2020 season and average the nine since 2010 you come up with just under 40,000. If you consider that there is no way in hell that we have infected every person in the US or even any where near 1/3, then your death rate of .0001194424 is meaningless. If you apply any kind of common sense to the influenza numbers you are playing with two factors that you haven't begun to account for are the partial immunity of people who've been exposed to influenza for a lifetime, people who've been vaccinated in the past regardless of their prior exposures and of course those who have been vaccinated for this year's influenza. There is nothing common to influenza and to corona because corona is entering a wholly unexposed population. Lastly of course your numbers are meaningless because we are but 7 weeks into this pandemic and do not have a whole year's numbers for comparison. If you divide 52 by 7 and multiply out current corona deaths of just over 40,000 by about 7.5 the numbers will still be fugged for comparison because of the difference in the prior exposure of the population and because we do not know what the rest of the year will look like. so we cannot assume that the rest of the year will average out like the first seven weeks.

In addition there are things like the west coast deaths per known infection do not comport with the east coast deaths per infection. For all we know today that difference may be just because the west coast people are more decent and moral. We can with some certainty expect that the death numbers will peak in a wave fashion across the country as the disease moves across the country. We cannot well predict those deaths because we may find therapies that can minimize them or we may not. We may find that social distancing may lower the numbers of deaths or we may only find that it flattens the curve with totals remaining relatively the same. We also have not proven that antibody therapy works yet. That leaves open the possibility that reinfection may occur as does the possibility of a different version of the virus on each coast.

If you want to build a conspiracy theory against Trump it would be difficult to find a shakier foundation on which to build one.

Its not in Italy, France, Spain, or China for that matter.

It’s time to overcome fear and panic and apply common sense hygiene and get back to living. There are not enough people who are deathly sick to keep the country shut down. The President did what had to be done. Manufacturing is ramping up masks, ventilators and ppe, researchers are working on medications and vaccines— we bought 4-6 weeks to get this far, now It’s time to move ahead instead of hunkering down.