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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8,129 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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OP
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8,129 Likes: 1 |
39,201 deaths in the US. Population 328200000 0.0001194424 death rate
CDC estimates 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season
24000÷328200000=0.0000731261 62000÷328200000=0.0001889092
Take the flu average of 43000 43000÷328200000=0.0001310176
I'm a historian, not a mathematician. What am I missing?
I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but I'm starting to see how some people might believe that this is part of an ongoing effort to end the Trump presidency
“Factio democratica delenda est"
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 25,614 Likes: 27
Campfire Ranger
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 25,614 Likes: 27 |
Yep.....my wife has been saying from the beginning that this is just another attempt by the evil rulers to destroy the best President of our lifetime and I agree with her.
With barely anyone out and about it reminds me of how nice and peaceful life was 30 years ago. We could use a 50% reduction in the population, not through death necessarily but through deportations and “extraditions”. 😉
�Politicians are the lowest form of life on earth. Liberal Democrats are the lowest form of politician.� �General George S. Patton, Jr.
--------------------------------------------------------- ~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,831 Likes: 3
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2007
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What you’re missing is this is an election year
NRA Patron
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Joined: Oct 2008
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Campfire Tracker
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Joined: Oct 2008
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What you’re missing is this is an election year makes you wonder if they dont have covid-20 all cued up for release for when Trump gets us all back to work ? they'll say "he ordered us back too soon" ! .... in an attempt to claim the intellectual high ground and finish of his administration. At this point my money is on "what ever the Chinese are up to , the democrats arent for behind."
.... like tears in the rain
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,341
Campfire Outfitter
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Joined: Dec 2004
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The end of democracy, and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations.
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,297
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2007
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It is more contagious but not more deadly.
Ideas are far more powerful than guns, We dont let our people have guns. Why should we let them have ideas. "Joseph Stalin"
He who has braved youths dizzy heat dreads not the frost of age.
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Campfire Tracker
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What you are missing is that these aren’t just deaths, these Americans were killed by China’s rulers. It will take more investigation to determine how the Corona virus got out of the lab. However, it is the coverup by China’s government that kept it from being contained and allowed it to spread to countries all over the world. That coverup was intentional and premeditated.
He who joyfully marches in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would suffice.
- Albert Einstein
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69,518 Likes: 30 |
What you’re missing is this is an election year makes you wonder if they dont have covid-20 all cued up for release for when Trump gets us all back to work ? they'll say "he ordered us back too soon" ! .... in an attempt to claim the intellectual high ground and finish of his administration. At this point my money is on "what ever the Chinese are up to , the democrats arent for behind." Yep. Wouldn’t surprise me at all!!!
"Allways speak the truth and you will never have to remember what you said before..." Sam Houston Texans, "We say Grace, We Say Mam, If You Don't Like it, We Don't Give a Damn!"
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,341
Campfire Outfitter
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Joined: Dec 2004
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It is more contagious but not more deadly. Yes that seems to sum it up.
The end of democracy, and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations.
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Posts: 2,169 Likes: 3
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 2,169 Likes: 3 |
Hospitals and states are getting government “assistance’ (money) based on how many “Corona virus deaths’ they record Literally half of the Corona virus deaths are BS.
Someone has stage four lung cancer and the doctors give them a few weeks to live. That person gets diagnosed with Corona virus, and a few weeks later they die. Corona virus death
A Chicago drug dealer gets Corona virus, then gets shot to death by a rival drug dealer. Corona virus death
Someone gets diagnosed and driving home fails to notice the red light. Dies in a car wreck. Corona virus death
Diagnosed with Corona virus and then; Dies of a massive heart attack Falls off a latter Drowns in a swimming pool All recorded as “They had corona virus and they died”.
Trump is not giving us enough assistance (money), look at all these people who are dying !!!
MOLON LABE
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I think the "doubling every 4 days" death proponents are falling way behind. glad for that. By their math we should be at 100,000 deaths today. reported, and I stress "reported" deaths are under 42,000.
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Campfire Outfitter
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This could turn into a popcorn thread!
The end of democracy, and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations.
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Campfire Tracker
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Joined: Apr 2019
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39,201 deaths in the US. Population 328200000 0.0001194424 death rate
CDC estimates 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season
24000÷328200000=0.0000731261 62000÷328200000=0.0001889092
Take the flu average of 43000 43000÷328200000=0.0001310176
I'm a historian, not a mathematician. What am I missing?
I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but I'm starting to see how some people might believe that this is part of an ongoing effort to end the Trump presidency
You're missing comparative infection rate. The flu numbers reflect infection throughout the population (no quarantine, or widespread immunity throughout the population) we're still early in the Covid-19 pandemic and a much smaller number have been infected (or have immunity) than compared with the flu. The problem is we don't know the true lethality rate because we don't know how widespread CV-19 infection is. Is the lethality rate like the flu (.01% or one death per thousand) or is it 3.5% (35 deaths per thousand)? We don't know yet (for sure). But we should know within a few more weeks. That said, there is no doubt the Left (which includes the MSM) hope CV-19 brings this country to its knees.
Last edited by Tarquin; 04/19/20.
Tarquin
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 15,948 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 15,948 Likes: 2 |
Hospitals and states are getting government “assistance’ (money) based on how many “Corona virus deaths’ they record Literally half of the Corona virus deaths are BS.
Someone has stage four lung cancer and the doctors give them a few weeks to live. That person gets diagnosed with Corona virus, and a few weeks later they die. Corona virus death
A Chicago drug dealer gets Corona virus, then gets shot to death by a rival drug dealer. Corona virus death
Someone gets diagnosed and driving home fails to notice the red light. Dies in a car wreck. Corona virus death
Diagnosed with Corona virus and then; Dies of a massive heart attack Falls off a latter Drowns in a swimming pool All recorded as “They had corona virus and they died”.
Trump is not giving us enough assistance (money), look at all these people who are dying !!!
I believe that is why they are now saying "Covis related deaths".
There are 2 rules to success:
1. Never tell everything that you know.
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Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69,518 Likes: 30
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69,518 Likes: 30 |
Hospitals and states are getting government “assistance’ (money) based on how many “Corona virus deaths’ they record Literally half of the Corona virus deaths are BS.
Someone has stage four lung cancer and the doctors give them a few weeks to live. That person gets diagnosed with Corona virus, and a few weeks later they die. Corona virus death
A Chicago drug dealer gets Corona virus, then gets shot to death by a rival drug dealer. Corona virus death
Someone gets diagnosed and driving home fails to notice the red light. Dies in a car wreck. Corona virus death
Diagnosed with Corona virus and then; Dies of a massive heart attack Falls off a latter Drowns in a swimming pool All recorded as “They had corona virus and they died”.
Trump is not giving us enough assistance (money), look at all these people who are dying !!!
I believe that is why they are now saying "Covis related deaths". PREZACTLY!!!
"Allways speak the truth and you will never have to remember what you said before..." Sam Houston Texans, "We say Grace, We Say Mam, If You Don't Like it, We Don't Give a Damn!"
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69,518 Likes: 30
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 69,518 Likes: 30 |
I think the "doubling every 4 days" death proponents are falling way behind. glad for that. By their math we should be at 100,000 deaths today. reported, and I stress "reported" deaths are at just over 40,000 Yep. And the key word there is “reported” deaths.
"Allways speak the truth and you will never have to remember what you said before..." Sam Houston Texans, "We say Grace, We Say Mam, If You Don't Like it, We Don't Give a Damn!"
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 15,948 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 15,948 Likes: 2 |
There is a huge difference in the real numbers of those who died "from" CV-19 and those who died "with" CV-19.
We're not being given accurate and complete data.
There are 2 rules to success:
1. Never tell everything that you know.
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,740 Likes: 1
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,740 Likes: 1 |
39,201 deaths in the US. Population 328200000 0.0001194424 death rate
CDC estimates 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season
24000÷328200000=0.0000731261 62000÷328200000=0.0001889092
Take the flu average of 43000 43000÷328200000=0.0001310176
I'm a historian, not a mathematician. What am I missing?
I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but I'm starting to see how some people might believe that this is part of an ongoing effort to end the Trump presidency
What you are missing is that your math is fugged up! If you split the difference of the high and low estimate for 2019/2020 season and average the nine since 2010 you come up with just under 40,000. If you consider that there is no way in hell that we have infected every person in the US or even any where near 1/3, then your death rate of .0001194424 is meaningless. If you apply any kind of common sense to the influenza numbers you are playing with two factors that you haven't begun to account for are the partial immunity of people who've been exposed to influenza for a lifetime, people who've been vaccinated in the past regardless of their prior exposures and of course those who have been vaccinated for this year's influenza. There is nothing common to influenza and to corona because corona is entering a wholly unexposed population. Lastly of course your numbers are meaningless because we are but 7 weeks into this pandemic and do not have a whole year's numbers for comparison. If you divide 52 by 7 and multiply out current corona deaths of just over 40,000 by about 7.5 the numbers will still be fugged for comparison because of the difference in the prior exposure of the population and because we do not know what the rest of the year will look like. so we cannot assume that the rest of the year will average out like the first seven weeks. In addition there are things like the west coast deaths per known infection do not comport with the east coast deaths per infection. For all we know today that difference may be just because the west coast people are more decent and moral. We can with some certainty expect that the death numbers will peak in a wave fashion across the country as the disease moves across the country. We cannot well predict those deaths because we may find therapies that can minimize them or we may not. We may find that social distancing may lower the numbers of deaths or we may only find that it flattens the curve with totals remaining relatively the same. We also have not proven that antibody therapy works yet. That leaves open the possibility that reinfection may occur as does the possibility of a different version of the virus on each coast. If you want to build a conspiracy theory against Trump it would be difficult to find a shakier foundation on which to build one.
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What you’re missing is this is an election year Its not in Italy, France, Spain, or China for that matter.
Tarquin
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Joined: Mar 2010
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It’s time to overcome fear and panic and apply common sense hygiene and get back to living. There are not enough people who are deathly sick to keep the country shut down. The President did what had to be done. Manufacturing is ramping up masks, ventilators and ppe, researchers are working on medications and vaccines— we bought 4-6 weeks to get this far, now It’s time to move ahead instead of hunkering down.
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