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There's modeling that extends beyond NOAAs.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Two models show it hitting the north-central Gulf Coast as a Cat 3, two show it hitting as a tropical storm and 6 as either a CAT 1 or 2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png

Of course there are, and there is a reason they call them "spaghetti models"...they are all over the place.

The "forecaster" that gets it closest to correct gets recognition and the others just say "Hey...it's a hurricane, you never know what they're gonna do."

We got FIVE FEET of rain from Harvey.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/

All the models are getting direction now.

They could be wrong... but probably more correct than not.

Good luck guys. Keep your heads down on high ground.


Far enough inland hurricanes are only rain events here.
We are high enough that any issues personally would be biblical,
But hate what mountains draining into valleys does to neighbors.

Lt,
Harvey was epic, remember it well. From 1200 miles away.

And not to belittle the mess it caused,
But I couldnt help but think of what would happen with that amount of water
here.

All that water funneled into a very small amount of the surface area.

1977 we got 1 foot in 24 hours. Close areas got hit pretty good.
Lots of flooded homes, washed out roads...

Johnstown, 30 miles away, had around 40 people killed, a lot of
destruction, steel mills damaged that were never rebuilt.

1 foot.

Can't fathom 5.

Harvey was a bad one all right. Camped over SE Tx. and it just kept raining. Usually storms/hurricanes they keep moving and it can be bad, very bad, but in a few hours, it's over with and you start the clean-up. When it floods in the flat lands, the run-off is slow and it takes days for it to leave and that just compounds the problems. The storm surge is bad enough, but add to that 'feet of rain' and it's a double whammy.

For those that are not familiar, the storm surge is the salt water pushed by the wind, up on the land. It can go for miles inland. Backs up all the streams, rivers, etc. that would normally drain the rain water off. When this happens, there is no where for the rain water to go, so it intensifies the flooding.

A tropical storm or depression can be worse than a cat 1 hurricane if you are in an area that can flood and you are on the rainy side of the storm.
A small hurricane will roll on through pretty quickly but these tropical storms and depressions can be a day or more of heavy rain. This time of year most parts of the south get rain about everyday so the ground is saturated. The Gulf is very warm so about any storm that has a clean shot across it will strengthen a good bit.

Yep, that's what we, up here in the northern part of the state, usually have to worry about. It's usually not the wind, because most of the time it's below hurricane strength, it's the rain. Some times the storm front stalls and you can get a pounding. Other times it speeds up when it hits land. You just never know.

This, Middle TN seems to get a bunch of tropical rain about the 1st every year...and we sure do not need a lot more rain around Waverly.

Now some of the models are showing a Cat 4 at landfall.

NOAA has it as a depression now.

folks that are in areas where hurricanes are possible/probable should always be prepared. Ready to shelter in place, with food and water, batteries and such for at least two weeks. Ready to leave if that is appropriate. Vehicle fuel tank full at all times. Vehicle in good shape, good tires etc. Ready to go.
Most folks are not. They are the ones that cry for help after a day, have no food or water, and can't leave if necessary. It always sucks to be that person.

Around here, it's a well-running generator, plenty of fuel, freeze a lot of water jugs, lay in some food/water, clean out the ice chests, batteries for the lights, and make sure your chainsaw is ready.

Same for us.

I added another portable generator for extra capacity and a little backup.

Most times just the act of trying to prepare will ward off.the storms for a year or so.

Back in the 70's i worked for the school system in Biloxi and enjoyed the challenge of bringing supplies and a to the shelters.

There is something about the wind and deep water in a Chevy step van.

Was fine loaded but when empty got sporty.

Especially by this time in the season.

^^
This.
Some speed up pre landfall, some slow down, some increase intensity and others don’t.

Wind is one thing but surge, rainfall and tornado spin offs are others.

It has been my observation that spaghetti projections whip around like loose fire hoses from day to day such that if you’re under the gun three days out, probably it ain’t you that’s gonna get hit.

Two days out? Time to start paying attention.

JMHO

Hopefully the hospitals are rated for class 5.

Because according to the news that's where everybody is.