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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17 |
There's modeling that extends beyond NOAAs. https://spaghettimodels.com/
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1 |
Of course there are, and there is a reason they call them "spaghetti models"...they are all over the place.
The "forecaster" that gets it closest to correct gets recognition and the others just say "Hey...it's a hurricane, you never know what they're gonna do."
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1 |
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 69,696 Likes: 23
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 69,696 Likes: 23 |
All the models are getting direction now. They could be wrong... but probably more correct than not.
Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla!
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 21,876 Likes: 5
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 21,876 Likes: 5 |
Good luck guys. Keep your heads down on high ground.
Far enough inland hurricanes are only rain events here. We are high enough that any issues personally would be biblical, But hate what mountains draining into valleys does to neighbors.
Lt, Harvey was epic, remember it well. From 1200 miles away.
And not to belittle the mess it caused, But I couldnt help but think of what would happen with that amount of water here.
All that water funneled into a very small amount of the surface area.
1977 we got 1 foot in 24 hours. Close areas got hit pretty good. Lots of flooded homes, washed out roads...
Johnstown, 30 miles away, had around 40 people killed, a lot of destruction, steel mills damaged that were never rebuilt.
1 foot.
Can't fathom 5.
Parents who say they have good kids..Usually don't!
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Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 15,885 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 15,885 Likes: 1 |
Harvey was a bad one all right. Camped over SE Tx. and it just kept raining. Usually storms/hurricanes they keep moving and it can be bad, very bad, but in a few hours, it's over with and you start the clean-up. When it floods in the flat lands, the run-off is slow and it takes days for it to leave and that just compounds the problems. The storm surge is bad enough, but add to that 'feet of rain' and it's a double whammy.
For those that are not familiar, the storm surge is the salt water pushed by the wind, up on the land. It can go for miles inland. Backs up all the streams, rivers, etc. that would normally drain the rain water off. When this happens, there is no where for the rain water to go, so it intensifies the flooding.
Last edited by Oldman03; 08/26/21. Reason: kant spel
Old Turd- Deplorable- Unrepentant Murderer- Domestic Violent Extremist
Just "Campfire Riffraff and Trash"
This will be my last post! Flave 1/3/21
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 5,491 Likes: 1
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 5,491 Likes: 1 |
A tropical storm or depression can be worse than a cat 1 hurricane if you are in an area that can flood and you are on the rainy side of the storm. A small hurricane will roll on through pretty quickly but these tropical storms and depressions can be a day or more of heavy rain. This time of year most parts of the south get rain about everyday so the ground is saturated. The Gulf is very warm so about any storm that has a clean shot across it will strengthen a good bit.
Last edited by Boarmaster123; 08/26/21.
Life can be rough on us dreamers.
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Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 15,885 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 15,885 Likes: 1 |
Yep, that's what we, up here in the northern part of the state, usually have to worry about. It's usually not the wind, because most of the time it's below hurricane strength, it's the rain. Some times the storm front stalls and you can get a pounding. Other times it speeds up when it hits land. You just never know.
Old Turd- Deplorable- Unrepentant Murderer- Domestic Violent Extremist
Just "Campfire Riffraff and Trash"
This will be my last post! Flave 1/3/21
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,412 Likes: 3
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,412 Likes: 3 |
Seems the last few years Dove season opener has been blown out!
hope not again this year.
Central Zone, 9/1/2021
ya!
GWB This, Middle TN seems to get a bunch of tropical rain about the 1st every year...and we sure do not need a lot more rain around Waverly.
To preserve liberty it is essential that the whole body of people always possess arms and be taught alike, especially when young, how to use them.-Richard Henry Lee
Endowment Member NRA, Life Member SAF-GOA, Life-Board Member, West TN Director TFA
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17 |
Now some of the models are showing a Cat 4 at landfall.
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 26,590 Likes: 17 |
NOAA is showing 50% chance of turning into a depression within 48 hours. The way it is taking shape, I have it as a depression by tomorrow this time. NOAA has it as a depression now.
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 67,766 Likes: 5
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 67,766 Likes: 5 |
folks that are in areas where hurricanes are possible/probable should always be prepared. Ready to shelter in place, with food and water, batteries and such for at least two weeks. Ready to leave if that is appropriate. Vehicle fuel tank full at all times. Vehicle in good shape, good tires etc. Ready to go. Most folks are not. They are the ones that cry for help after a day, have no food or water, and can't leave if necessary. It always sucks to be that person.
Sam......
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,247
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,247 |
Around here, it's a well-running generator, plenty of fuel, freeze a lot of water jugs, lay in some food/water, clean out the ice chests, batteries for the lights, and make sure your chainsaw is ready.
Now with even more aplomb
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Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,430
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,430 |
Around here, it's a well-running generator, plenty of fuel, freeze a lot of water jugs, lay in some food/water, clean out the ice chests, batteries for the lights, and make sure your chainsaw is ready. Same for us. I added another portable generator for extra capacity and a little backup. Most times just the act of trying to prepare will ward off.the storms for a year or so.
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 11,920
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 11,920 |
Back in the 70's i worked for the school system in Biloxi and enjoyed the challenge of bringing supplies and a to the shelters.
There is something about the wind and deep water in a Chevy step van.
Was fine loaded but when empty got sporty.
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Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 5,491 Likes: 1
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 5,491 Likes: 1 |
folks that are in areas where hurricanes are possible/probable should always be prepared. Ready to shelter in place, with food and water, batteries and such for at least two weeks. Ready to leave if that is appropriate. Vehicle fuel tank full at all times. Vehicle in good shape, good tires etc. Ready to go. Most folks are not. They are the ones that cry for help after a day, have no food or water, and can't leave if necessary. It always sucks to be that person. Especially by this time in the season.
Life can be rough on us dreamers.
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Of course there are, and there is a reason they call them "spaghetti models"...they are all over the place.
The "forecaster" that gets it closest to correct gets recognition and the others just say "Hey...it's a hurricane, you never know what they're gonna do." ^^ This. Some speed up pre landfall, some slow down, some increase intensity and others don’t. Wind is one thing but surge, rainfall and tornado spin offs are others.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 37,931 Likes: 4
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 37,931 Likes: 4 |
It has been my observation that spaghetti projections whip around like loose fire hoses from day to day such that if you’re under the gun three days out, probably it ain’t you that’s gonna get hit.
Two days out? Time to start paying attention.
JMHO
"...if the gentlemen of Virginia shall send us a dozen of their sons, we would take great care in their education, instruct them in all we know, and make men of them." Canasatego 1744
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 Likes: 13
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 Likes: 13 |
Hopefully the hospitals are rated for class 5.
Because according to the news that's where everybody is.
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual. Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit. My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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