Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Canada Federal Election - 20 Sept

In three weeks, after the reelection of Captain sparkle socks. The border will likely go back into lockdown, I truly hope I am completely wrong, but that's my gut feeling.

Tonight's French language debate is the first one for O'Toole. The media and Quebecers will be watching closely to see how he performs. It's likely that Liberal strategists are hoping that O'Toole crashes and burns on live TV. They are hopeful that Trudeau walks all over him, to counter the constant interruptions and protests of Trudeau's bus. The Liberal campaign will be adversely affected if the protests continue, and O'Toole's appearance is acceptable. As much as some people in English Canada don't like the French, Quebecers aren't thrilled with Trudeau's performance either. It's possible that Quebecers will cut O'Toole some slack.

The numbers still haven't shifted much. The Conservatives are still in front, but it isn't nearly enough.

This is CBC's Poll Tracking.

Conservative - 33.7%
Liberal - 31.2%
New Democrat - 20.6%

Will these numbers shift after tonight? We'll know tomorrow.

Steve, I’m on the edge of my seat. What’s the polling ?

My high school Parisian French is a tad rusty, but I thought O’T did well,
But, how well does the rest of Quebec/Canada think.

Will he pry loose votes from Bloc supporters ?
Did he crush TurdO ?

Pay no attention to those n’er do wells that insist on backstabbing your every move.
I for one, appreciate your reasoned and seasoned responses, ha
These too will pass.

Thanks for your kind words,

This morning's polls are in, and the result is interesting. It's best if you don't take a day to day change, but look at trends. In this case, the Conservatives seem to be going slowly and steadily up. That has to continue through the English language debate and on to election day.

I included two polls. My take on them - Nanos and CBC - is the Conservatives scored well last night in the French language debate. Their numbers are up over previous days.

The Bloq seems to have lost ground (albeit a small amount) when the pollsters were tracking last night into this morning.

For me, this is encouraging. I was concerned about how O'Toole would perform in French. It appears he did alright.

Nanos Tracking

Conservatives - 35.7% (+1.5)
Liberals - 30.7% (+ 0.2)
NDP - 18.3% (-1.8)

BQ - - 5.5% (-0.5%)

CBC News (average of 4 polls - Mainstreet, Nanos, CR, Ekos)

Conservative - 34.0% (+0.3)
Liberal - 31.0% (–0.2)
New Democrat - 20.4% (–0.2)

Bloc Québécois - 6.0% {–0.2)

If this is true, it could be the Liberals undoing at the polls. Most Canadians don’t see the point to an election during the pandemic. They might punish the Liberals on voting day.

Canada on course for worst wave of COVID-19 yet, new modelling data shows
Ryan Flanagan - CTV News

TORONTO -- Reported daily COVID-19 caseloads in Canada could reach unprecedented highs later this month if current levels of virus transmission are not reduced, new federal modelling data shows.

On the eve of the Labour Day weekend, chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam took aim at young adults, describing an "urgent need" for more people between the ages of 18 and 39 to get vaccinated in order to prevent a rapid worsening of Canada's COVID-19 situation.

"The moment you get people back indoors … we will see accelerations," she said Friday at a press conference.

Data released by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) shows that 74 per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 29 and 77 per cent of those in their 30s have been fully vaccinated, versus 82 per cent of those in their 40s and even higher percentages of older age groups.

In addition, Tam said, those younger adults "continue to have the highest rates of infection," in part because they are more likely to have close contact with people outside their household for work-related or recreational reasons.

There is also a regional disparity in vaccination rates. While 84 per cent of eligible vaccine recipients across Canada have received two doses, the rate is only 78 per cent in Alberta and 76 per cent in Saskatchewan.

From mid-July to mid-August, Tam said, the COVID-19 infection rate was 12 times higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated, and the hospitalization rate was 36 times higher.

The rest here - https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...9-yet-new-modelling-data-shows-1.5572673

I also thought that Mr. O'Toole did well in the french Language debate. Seemed to me to quite articulate in our second language.

Why are we having two French debates and only one English? Is Twinkle Toes trying to stack the deck in his favour?| Wouldn't surprise me at all. Ethics and honesty have never been his strong points.

According to Eric Grenier of the CBC,

French-speaking voters have been spoiled lately, with two debates rather than just the one in English. That’s because a consortium of media outlets put on the official French and English language debates, while TVA (a Quebec only network - Steve) goes off on its own to produce its own program.

So it would appear that two organizations had a hand in scheduling the debates.

https://www.thewrit.ca/p/why-tonights-french-debate-matters
---

But that may not matter if Dr. Tam's predictions get legs with voters.

It's Sunday, with one more day of the long weekend left. Some pollsters suggested that Canadians would be talking about the election, platforms and the leaders over the weekend and that we might see a change in numbers. It doesn't look like it.

The CBC poll, an average of 4 polls - Mainstreet, Nanos, CR and Ekos - looks like this. No movement. Gun control. COVID and a few other items haven't really made much of a difference so far.

Conservative - 34.0%
Liberal - 31.3%
New Democrat - 20.0%

Bloc Québécois - 5.9%
People's Party - 4.4%
Green - 3.5%

Nanos has the Conservatives and Liberals tracking closer to each other. Regardless, there isn't much difference. Not enough to say that the Conservatives have a chance to form even a minority government.

CON - 34.9%
LIB - 33.4%
NDP - 18.9%

BQ - 4.8%
GRN - 4.2%
PPC - 3.5%

Someone is going to have to shake the sugar tree for votes this week! Will there be any heretofore unknown or unused ammunition hidden away in anyone's planning box? Perhaps they are waiting for later this week. The English language debate will have much more of an effect on voter's minds, but if the polls remain steady, Trudeau will have blown a lot of money for zero benefit.

If the liberals or ndp attack the O’Toole conservatives gun control policy it could backfire on them in a big way.
Even my 86 yo mom knows that they are doing the exact opposite of what they say they are accomplishing.

Honest law abiding firearms owners don’t commit these street crimes in the first place. Proven with their own statistics.

Given the foregoing, There is No legitimate reason for prohibiting semi-automatic magazine fed rifles, just because they might look like Full Auto Mil Spec versions. thousands of Coyotes are laughing.

Even the magazine capacity restrictions are silly.

The rhetoric is a lie. Every time they repeat it, it becomes more repugnant.

Please vote these liars out of their minority
.Hold them up to a higher standard of honesty and accountability.

Don’t give them the parliamentary seats that enable this dishonesty.

So far, only the gun control issue has managed to be a problem for the Conservatives. Voters don't remember what was said last week, so you can bet the Liberals will be hammering that issue and keeping it fresh.

The pundits expected movement in the polls after the long weekend. There was none. The CBC poll lays out the following - please note that this is prior to the English language debate.

10% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
44% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
41% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
5% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

Trust not the CBC.

Trust, but Verify !
This is a tight race,

Lies, damn lies and more statistics from the CBC.

the prize is at hand. It is unfortunate that the conservatives had to backtrack on their stated gun control policy, so as not to give TurdO something to hurl inflammatory rhetoric at.
He’ll find something else, and look equally pathetic.
He’s just a drama teacher, Not much of policy maker though

Prohibiting a semi-automatic rifle because one was used in a mass shooting 30 years ago is ridiculous policy.
Register it, by all means , but use the statistics of peaceful ownership to prove that it wasn’t the gun, but the nut behind the trigger !

Full auto, ok maybe too much fun. Anti-materiel, sure a tad sinister. I get that.

But my coyote rifle ? That’s just wrong. Get lost Bill

I would like to point out that the CBC poll below uses data that is 24 hrs behind Nanos.

Today's tracking is as follows: It seems the differences over gun control and health care might be adversely affecting the Conservatives. In the Nanos poll, what the Conservatives lost, the NDP gained. It literally will come down to the debate. All the soft or sway voters will watch the news media for individual performances on debate night before deciding.

The chess game continues.

Nanos*

LIB - 34.1%
CON - 32.0%
NDP - 20.9%

GRN - 4.6%
BQ - 4.0%
PPC - 3.8%

The latest data from today. Note differences in Nanos and CBC polls.

CBC Poll - Four polls averaged**

Conservative - 33.5%
Liberal - 31.2%
NDP - 20.3%

BQ - 5.9%
PPC - 4.8%
Green - 3.4%

**The CBC poll is one day behind. That is, their latest information is averaged from the four polls dated 3 to 6 Sep.

2nd French debate is tomorrow, I’m guessing the gloves may come off before Thursday’s English language debate.

Almost as exciting as an Oilers v Flames playoff matchup !!

Yes.

The advance polls open on the 10th - the day after the last debate night. My wife and I will be voting on the weekend.

The Friday polls will be interesting.

No point getting mixed up in a crowd of voters on the 20th if your mind is made up.

Cv19 Delta vs Election 21 - The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Little side poll here :

How many of you think or thought like I did , that the gravel thrower was a liberal orchestrated stunt to bring media attention and sympathy for poor Justin, the drama teacher ?

I can’t believe that his rcmp security detail are that inept , that they couldn’t apprehend the culprit.

Too convenient by far.

It would be heavenly if the PPC replaced the Liberal Party as the official opposition, our choices would be the Conservatives and/or the PPC. Then we can get to work helping Quebec with whatever it is they need to separate and achieve their goals.
We can still be friends, but friends need to quit mooching and sleeping on my couch.

I dont see one single Liberal candidate signage anywhere around here, but everywhere I look is a **** Trudeau sign in someone's window. Trudeau wants to create more gun restrictions that nobody will adhere to. I am hoping that the Liberals will be crushed and Butts returns to his fluffy job as an environmentalist and Globalist extraordinaire.

Jagmeet is on a wing and a prayer, going on his Charisma alone, and the high number of Sikh's here in BC, he will win some seats here, but smart people see somebody has got to be working to pay for his promises, which are ridiculous.

673;
Good day sir, I see your light is on and hope you're all doing okay.

I hope your fire situation is at least calming down a wee bit with the cooler nights. We've still had no significant rain which we could really use for sure.

There's been 3 fires now down here on PIB land in the past week and a bit. Strange coincidence that, no?

Last night I was watching a podcast of Danica Patrick with Jordan Peterson which was really pretty good on a lot of levels. Anyways one thing that he repeated was that if parents or governments make too many rules, they both need to be enforced to be effective and as well when there is a perception that there are too many or they are unfair, kids and people begin to ignore them.

To my way of thinking that's the fine line that the Liberals have hurdled across with firearms, just as they did with the registry. People just ignored it on many levels and idiotic laws made otherwise pillars of society into criminals.

There's a darker danger as well in that some folks I knew would stay on the side of right as long as it suited their purposes for the most part. If too many rules caused them to switch to the "dark side" so to speak, then all bets were off.

We very much saw this out here with grow ops in our part of the world. People thought it was stupid that they couldn't puff the devil's lettuce when they had a mind to and took steps to address that.

Anyways, historically speaking, too many rules never works. Certainly not in the long term.

That said, it seems like every batch of politicians we get either can't grasp basic historical facts or think they're special and will somehow be exempt from things even their parents were subject to. In Sparkle Socks' case, either Pierre or Fidel - take your pick really - made enough mistakes it should make the course obvious for him, but alas....

Good luck on your hunts this fall 673 and lets hope this election works in our favor for a change.

Dwayne