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Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by MuskegMan
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Irrational exuberance?

Desperation... moreover... I would call it.

MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...

That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"

(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)

And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.

The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...

Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".

Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.

Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.


Quality, diversified items in the portfolio and take the long view .

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Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?

What part of my post is in conflict with what you posted?

None Sir... I misread your comment.


"The Republic Is Lost" November 4, 2020 deflave


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Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?

What part of my post is in conflict with what you posted?

None Sir... I misread your comment.

No worries. All good.

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Got cash in the brokerage account waiting for an opportunity.

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Disclaimer: This is not directed at anybody in this thread or any other market thread.

There are generally two approaches to investing, Fundamental or Technical. Some people mix in a little of both, but let me explain the major differences. Technical is more or less chart reading and patterns. The technical approach is data mining to find a repeating pattern that they feel can forecast the future with some form of accuracy. I am not a big fan of it, but it does have its place.

Fundamental, or qualitative, investing is the analysis of the actual company, commodity, bond, real estate, precious metal, crypto currency, etc.... I favor this one because it makes a bit more sense to me and is exactly what Warren Buffett follows for example. He follows the Benjamin Graham/David Dodd school of investing. They did an extensive study which had an advantage over time (Technical vs Fundamental) and gave the edge to the Fundamental style. True or not it is far easier for me to sink my teeth into and it is far more simple in my opinion.

Basically, you take every investment that interests you and you feel has a legitimate spot in your portfolio which could consist of certain stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto.....whatever you feel you understand. This is now your universe of investments. Take each one of those investments and study it until you can assess a fair value to said investment. Then you let Mr. Market do its thing in its own manic/depressive way. Graham and Dodd labeled it Mr. Market and called it a manic/depressive.

Don't make it harder than it has to be. No reason to fight the market for your particular investment. Let it do all the work. What I mean by that is once you have established a fair value for your investment then wait until the market discounts your investment (depressive) to a point that you are comfortable in purchasing it. The discount to fair value is called "margin of safety." The greater the margin of safety the less important your fair value calculation needs to be.

Now you allow the market to do its thing again. Once the market gets manic on your investment then you reduce or outright sell as it nears or surpasses your calculated fair value. You do need to constantly re-evaluate the fair value because things will affect it like dividend increases or reductions on a stock.

There is a bit more advanced way of portfolio construction with value investing and it can be quite effective independent of tax issues and transaction costs. It is called playing the margin of safety game. You take two similar investments which you have assessed the fair value. It can be real estate, precious metals, or even two similar stocks like Chevron Texaco and Exxon Mobil.

Say you own Exxon Mobil which you bought at a discount to fair value of 50%. XOM has increased in value, but it is still 10% below your calculated fair value. It is sometimes difficult to close that gap like losing the last 10 lbs of fat. Then you look at your Chevron Texaco research and discover that it is trading at 25% discount to your fair value calculation. The process would be to exchange part or all of the XOM position for CVX. Again as long as tax and trading costs are not too impactful. Chasing the greatest discount to fair value is a possible way to reduce risk in a portfolio and give the position more room to move towards fair value.

There is no reason to fight or try to guess what the market is going to do. It will rise dramatically, fall precipitously, and level off for an extended period of time....but not necessarily in that order. YMMV

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^^^

Excellent info.

It’s gotta be quite a challenge in the investment business for one to stay current each year with the changes enacted and those proposed for the future so that personal planning can be effective for clients.

Someone described it as being a perpetual puzzle wrapped in a conundrum, shoved inside of an enigma.

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Saw an interesting stat this morning on Yahoo Finance.

No SP500 bear market has ever reclaimed 50% of its losses and gone on to make new lows.

The magic number for that is a close above 4232. Its about 4242 now as I type at 11 am.


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Still a long way to go, but according to two different sources this morning traders are rushing to cover shorts and get back in the market. Continue to be very happy that I didn’t capitulate back in June.
Just wondering what the Campfire market gurus think?


Could never get past the extra holes.

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Cashed out mid winter, jumped back in about 2 months ago.
Every item is up between 10-40% from buy back price


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I jumped in on meme stock BBBY last week. Just hit my sell order

Fed dumping the billion sin the market will prop up for awhile longer

Last edited by ribka; 08/16/22.
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