Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Car market bubble

Valve cover leaks every six months...

I just bought a house in Wyoming at what I consider a fair price. Have been looking for a new side by side Yamaha Wolverine......MSRP PLUS fees....told them to pound sand. I'll just keep riding the Grizzly ATV.

Bought my F350 Super Duty Diesel 4x4 in 2020 before the crisis hit.....at a greatly discounted price. Perfect timing on that purchase!

I'll be waiting before I make any further large purchases.


Frog---OUT!

If new cars are going to be hard to buy, it doesn't make sense that used cars will crash. Used cars went up like a rocket because you couldn't buy new.
Plus, used car availability is tied to new car availability on both ends.
If new cars aren't within reach, people don't trade, that limits the used car supply. If a guy actually needing another can't buy new, he buys used instead. Pulling from the already limited supply.

Eventually, it works it's way down the price scale, with traditional new buyers buying off the top, pushing the people who might buy there to move down a tier.

That happened last time.
Used selling for more than new, clear down to the $2500 car suddenly costing $4000.



High interest will affect used cars more than new.
You can more easily get, and get better rates, on new car loans.
This won't stop used car purchases, but it may push people down the price scale.




A new dealer told us 2 months ago he was seeing a big uptick in people stopping in to sell a car. Most, trying to get out of a loan that inflation had suddenly made burdensome. Unfortunately for them, many had bought the cars at inflated prices and not payed them down much. Now, they are trying to get out when the market is down. 2 years of payments, and they are still way upside down.



I guess im looking out farther?
My ideas kick in as your scenario plays out.
If we are both right, a guy running a car he likes but doesn't think he wants to keep for more than a year or two might want to trade up sooner.

LOL...

I have a very strong relationship with my Toyota dealer...

Took the 2022 Sienna hybrid in for a free oil change/inspection. They offered me $10k over what I paid. We all laughed about it.

I asked how bad it really was...

"We won't even take orders for them anymore... and the people on the current list will most likely be getting 2024 and 2025 model years."

This is a large dealership in a major city.

We sold 1 SUV, 3 trucks, 1 SXS. Retired in 2019 when forced to do the jab, 30 years as a union pipefitter. Got way above market price. Waiting on the crash miss my SXS.

I'm just hoping I can get another 3 years out of my 2010 Taco. Haven't had a car payment in 6 years and I enjoy that feeling.

Reckoning is one word for it... Collapse is another...

Might want to stockpile common parts and such...

i.e. A $1,000 order at Rockauto today... may save you much trouble in the future.

Guess I won't worry about high interest rates for a long while. My house is paid for as are my two vehicles. I've had the Explorer 4x4 since 1998 when I bought it for the wife. My 2019 F150 4x4 had half the price paid for by my insurance company and I paid it off when the payment book came in. Paid the house off the same year I bought the Explorer. Figured I did something right for a change.
PJ

Good friend in the industry says the upper end SUV's and trucks are already dropping by the week. Down 15% in 2 months

If there are plenty of chips why hasn't GM installed mine that are months overdue?

Ordered a new 2022 Silverado last May. It never was built. Changed the order to a 2023 in August. Dealer has no clue when it will arrive.

Still ridin the '18 Kawi'

Paid $17200 in '18 OTD

Now with 5300 miles

Sounds good, but the new car lots still look pretty bare around here. I’d like to get the wife a newer, nicer vehicle in the next year or two, but hers runs fine, so we’ll wait out the rapings taking place currently.

Some manufacturer inventories are still low while others are near normal.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-i...es-falling-it-depends-on-where-you-look/

The way I see it will bankrupt the auto makers which goes right alon with the grand plan of all electric cars

March 16, 2023 at 01432 Zulu the entire vehicle market will collapse and everything will be FREE! FOREVER!

BOOK IT!

Raising interest rates will take a huge toll on the car market. Not many can go drop $65K for a new truck without some kind of financing.

All jokes aside, I've seen inventory improve slightly on certain models the past 3 weeks. Not sure if this is due to the 2023 model year or people starting to see the light. Regardless, short of an actual depression that none here have ever experienced, prices won't free fall on new vehicles. Incentives will get more gooder, prices might retract (slightly), but you'll still walk funny after the deal is done and you're headed home.

YMMV