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Yup

Give it another few months. Folks are going to be real piissed about their bills, gas prices, grocery prices, cancelled vacations, parked motor homes, etc. A demoscat hell-bent on spending isn't going to be in favor when people start voting with their pocketbooks.

Uncle Newt is supposed to make his big announcement on Hannity tonight.

I plan on being there; you betcha!

Same place you did, AP. I'd rather overestimate his popularity than underestimate it. Always respect your enemy.

Polls are about worthless as they change so quickly and for no real reason. Before the Bin Ladin killing and during Trumps relentless Birther BS the Pres had lower poll numbers, Birth Certificate is produced polls are up slightly, Bin Ladin gets popped and numbers are up. The numbers are a snap shot of how the public feels at that moment. Poll a guy who just filled up his SUV and dropped $125 he will tell you the economy sucks. Poll a guy who just got a little nookie from the old lady for first time in a month and he will tell you life is good. Polls mean very little this far out. Check back in June 2012 and then you may get a better feel.


As Far as Newt and his announcement tonight, do you really care? Newt will be road kill by South Carolina if he makes it that far. The man had too much Jack Abramoff and Tom Delay on his hands to make an impact, unless you have forgotten the late 90's and early 2000's. I seem to remember the contract with America and spending on any project that a member of K Street wanted. Paying the price now!

Polls are by no means worthless, they give a general idea of the political landscape at any given time, a snapshot. Of course they change, if they didn't what would be the point of continued polling? If you don't think politicians pay very close attention to polls you have a naive conception of how politics function.

I don't agree with your opinion of Newt. He could very well go all the way, although I'm predicting Romney.

Check out my new thread about this particular AP poll.

"Hogwash"

Wrong, flat wrong.

Three years ago I remember on this forum arguing with several regulars (I won't name names) that Hillary Clinton was preferable to Obama as the democratic nominee because Hillary was essentially unelectable as president, Obama would be a far more formidable candidate. I was argued down by these guys with a "wink-wink, nod-nod" dismissal which basically implied that Obama wouldn't get elected because he was black. I countered that that was his greatest strength. Certainly it's not a weakness because I don't think any sane observer would argue that he would have been elected had he been white with his lack of qualifications.

Do NOT underestimate Obama's ability to get reelected. He's amassing the largest war chest in history and the press loves him. The country has almost 40 million people on food stamps and every one of them that can vote will be pulling the lever for Obama. He wasn't elected based upon any qualification to be president but rather because of the visceral emotional reaction he brought out in the bubble gum and hippie crowd. Intellectual arguments don't work on that bunch, you can't get past "hope" and "tax the rich" with people that shortsighted.

Obama will be very, very hard to beat no matter what the state of the economy.

You could go on, but it wouldn't prove your case. Yes cap utilisation is up by 6% YOY, but still well below what it should be for a recovery.

Your inflation numbers are total BS, regardless of what you want to believe. The closest to true is the "urban chained all items", or headline, and it's much higher than the "core" rate that you seem to tout as true, but still low because of the statistical mummery that goes into it.

The labor participation rate is lower than it has been in 30 years and falling, and the U6 unemployment numbers are still near 17%. The birth/death model that the BLS uses is always revised later, and in the last couple of years has been revised down. A growing economy requires at least 200,000 jobs per month to be created just to get the persons entering the workforce employed and has been no where near that for at least two years.

The stock market, using the DJIA as an example is no where near its all time highs, rather some 2000 points below it and has been range bound between 11,000 and 12800 for a very long time. ditto the S&P, NYSE and the Nasdaq. The only reason that it has run as far as it has is Fed POMO being injected into it. The moment that stops, so will the market.

Interest rates are at all time lows because of Fed buying our debt through its PD's and keeping the FF rate low. The only positive about that is that it keeps our debt service low, but the moment that Fed support stops, look for interest rates to takeoff, especially at the long end of the curve. Besides, no one is borrowing money, because they are tapped out and over indebted anyway.

At best your selected stats show an economy that is treading water, not growing at any meaningful rate. The moment that the Fed props are removed, expect it to turn down again. That may not happen until after 2012, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I fear you are right on the money and that the best we can hope for is both houses of Congress. Hope we're both wrong.

Mike---Tell you what; you believe your numbers I'll believe mine. Last I heard no reputable economist was relying on Mikey's numbers. The economy is in and has been in recovery and this recovery will extend into 2012. BHO will ride it to a second term.

Have you ever been bullish on the economy? When? I want dates and numbers not opinions.

Funny when you pretend to be conservative.

Folks,
NG has "nothing" to offer."
He is simply another detached, pampered, ridiculous " DC insider" who is sure to disappoint us.
Fact is, he fell for Gore & the ridiculous global warming fiasco. Further, his moral compass is askew, and he is the same 'ole-same-ole'.
Come to your senses. Help me find a decent, reliable, sane candidate to run against bo.
Or else . . .

One of the most unimpressive politicans I have ever seen. He and Karl Rove should be joined at the wallet as the "pathetic twins".

I don't agree with your opinion of Newt. He could very well go all the way, although I'm predicting Romney. [/quote]

Good point and I respect your thoughts but...

Both Mitt and Newt will be road kill, just watch. Mitt will self destruct due to his liberal stand on health care and guns, the fear of Mormons will also sink him. As far as Newt... Well the list is soooo long. His family values problems will cook his goose as fast as anything but his real problem is the screw job he gave the voters when he and his crook buddies sold the country down the road 15 years ago. No pocket too deep and to ear mark too large for a price! K-Street knows Newt to well.


Keep fishing!

I could agree with you on Newt but I think Romney will get the nomination.

I have not endorsed anyone.