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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Rasmussen

After his game-changing win in South Carolina, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to ride his surge to the front of the pack among likely Republican primary voters nationwide. He now leads Mitt Romney by seven points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 35% of the vote, representing an eight-point increase in support from last week. Former Massachusetts Governor Romney now draws 28%. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum�s support is little changed at 16%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%.

Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, it was Romney 30%, Gingrich 27%, Santorum 15% and Paul 13%. Texas Governor Rick Perry who has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Gingrich earned four percent (4%) in that survey.

Support for Gingrich has jumped a total of 19 points in two surveys since early January, while Romney's support has held steady in that same period. Gingrich's highest level of national support to date, however, came in late November when he captured 38% of the vote after receiving less than 15% in prior surveys. This came following businessman Herman Cain's decision to quit the race as conservative Republicans looked for an alternative to the more moderate Romney.It is worth noting that 41% of GOP voters nationwide are certain of their vote at this time, but 50% could still change their mind between now and their primary. Santorum�s supporters are the most likely to say they could still change their minds at some point.

Romney held a 22-point lead over Gingrich in Florida two weeks ago, but new Rasmussen Reports polling released Monday shows the former speaker with 41% support now among likely GOP primary voters in the Sunshine State with Romney in second at 32%. The Florida Primary is on January 31.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of GOP voters nationwide now believe Gingrich would be the strongest opponent against President Obama in the general election, while 37% say that of Romney. This represents a big shift from last week, when 43% viewed Romney as the strongest Obama opponent and 29% said the same of Gingrich. Sixty-two percent (62%) consider Paul the weakest general election opponent to Obama.

Last week, 70%, regardless of whom they support, said Romney would ultimately be the party�s nominee. Now just 51% share that view, with 32% who think Gingrich will be the eventual nominee, up from 13% in the previous survey.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 35% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (32%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 51% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney. As for which candidate is best in terms of social issues, 28% prefer Gingrich, 25% Santorum and 23% Romney.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Tea Party, Very Conservative and Evangelical Christian voters were critical to Gingrich�s big win in South Carolina. Among Tea Party voters nationally, he leads with 52% support, followed by Santorum at 20%, Romney at 16% and Paul at eight percent (8%). Romney leads Gingrich 36% to 26% among those who are not members of the grassroots movement.

Similarly, among Very Conservative GOP voters nationally, it�s Gingrich 49%, Santorum 21%, Romney 16% and Paul seven percent (7%). Somewhat conservative voters give Romney 33%, Gingrich 32%, Santorum 17% and Paul nine percent (9%).

Among Evangelical Christians, Gingrich leads with 43% of the vote, while Santorum picks up 19% and Romney 17%. Protestants and Catholics are evenly divided between Romney and Gingrich, while voters of all other faiths give the edge to Romney.

Romney is viewed favorably by 68% of GOP primary voters nationwide, while Gingrich is seen that way by 64%. Sixty-four percent (64%) also have a favorable opinion of Santorum, while just 35% view Paul that way.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of all Republican primary voters nationally say they are voting primarily for their favorite candidate. Twenty percent (20%) say they are voting against one of the other candidates.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn�t win the nomination. Eight percent (8%) will opt for Obama instead, while six percent (6%) would vote for a third-party candidate. Paul�s campaign announced he has ruled out a third-party run, but his supporters remain by far the most willing to vote third party.

You caught the Michael Berry show yesterday?

Yep.The domestic independent oil producer became nearly extinct on his watch.I ain't saying he caused oil to go from $40 to $10 , but he watched it happen.

Nevertheless,I voted for him both times he ran and then voted for Bush to replace him.

But I'm a 2A voter.Not many of us left.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn�t win the nomination.
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That number will be greater after we select a candidate.

Newt will have the Pope pizzed off by November or sooner and his surge will be in the dumpster.His mouth will continue to overload his azz that's why his national numbers suck!He has ZERO chance of ever moving into the White House,you can put that in the bank!

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of GOP voters nationwide now believe Gingrich would be the strongest opponent against President Obama in the general election, while 37% say that of Romney. This represents a big shift from last week, when 43% viewed Romney as the strongest Obama opponent and 29% said the same of Gingrich. Sixty-two percent (62%) consider Paul the weakest general election opponent to Obama.

Last week, 70%, regardless of whom they support, said Romney would ultimately be the party�s nominee. Now just 51% share that view, with 32% who think Gingrich will be the eventual nominee, up from 13% in the previous survey.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 35% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (32%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 51% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney. As for which candidate is best in terms of social issues, 28% prefer Gingrich, 25% Santorum and 23% Romney.

FOX had Rasmussen on just a few minutes ago and I'm sure I heard the poll had swung in Romney's favor....

Edited: today's poll, huge swing.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com//

Not in so many words, but he clearly communicated that this was his desire by consistent and glowing advocacy for Alvin Toffler's books calling for same, even writing the forward for one of them.

These poll numbers change like the snow on my driveway..if he continues to pick on Ronnie he won't even be a blip on the political radar.

Sounds like the Robert Urich character from Amerika.

If you look at Gingrichs tax plan, it total crap.
Zero % Capitol gains? Really?
Romney was almost laughing at him in the last debate.
How is Gingrich going to get that done????
Not a fan of house members or senators for POTUS.To much pie in the sky bullchit talk...ie see paultard...Gingrichs latest is a moon base.Like we need a moonbase.
Give me the Fiscal Discipline of a Governor having to meet a budget.
I like watching Gingrich in a debate.
I dont think anyone can best him.
But he turns off independants, center right and middle voters and women.
He ought to be bitch slapped for sitting next to the dingbat on the park bench on global warming.
And people call Romney a flipflopper.
The poles I've seen show him getting beat by the raghead.
To irratic to suit me.But I'd vote for him over the raghead.
Not to sure many others would.

dave

A nice summation...
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'Stop-Newt' Republicans Confront Base Unwilling to Take Orders

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Two days after Newt Gingrich defeated Mitt Romney in the South Carolina presidential primary one of Romney's big-name backers offered a grim prediction for his fellow Republicans.

"The possibility of Newt Gingrich being our nominee against Barack Obama I think is essentially handing the election over to Obama," former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty told reporters on a Jan. 23 conference call. "I think that's shared by a lot of folks in the Republican Party."

Pawlenty's comments echoed those being uttered publicly and behind the scenes by elected Republicans, party activists, fundraisers and pundits, who represent a portion of the party establishment -- a "stop-Newt" caucus -- populated largely by people who have known the former U.S. House speaker for decades.

The question is: Can they?

For two decades, the Republican Party has seen an erosion of its traditional, top-down hierarchy, a decline aided by Gingrich himself in 1990 when he led a House revolt against a budget agreement negotiated by President George H.W. Bush that raised taxes. The rise of the anti-tax Tea Party wing in 2009 splintered the internal levers of power further, making it even harder to impose a choice on the rank-and file.

"There really is no Republican establishment left that can control anything," said Matthew Dowd, a onetime aide to President George W. Bush and now a Bloomberg Television contributor. "Some try to act like they are in charge, but the fraternity is now running the campus."



South Carolina Dynamics



Those dynamics were on display in South Carolina. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, lost by 12 percentage points even after campaigning throughout the state with Governor Nikki Haley and just a day after receiving the endorsement of Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association. Haley, who rose to power with Tea Party backing, didn't deliver either her state or its grassroots activists.

Meanwhile, Gingrich's campaign gained momentum after Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor who also has support from the Tea Party faction, said she'd vote for Gingrich in South Carolina if only to extend the length of the primary.

Similar signs of an insurgence came to light in the 2010 midterm elections, when Nevada voters tapped Sharron Angle -- a Tea Party-endorsed politician opposed by many of the state's prominent Republicans -- to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. And Delaware Republicans chose Christine O'Donnell over former governor and nine-term U.S. House Representative Mike Castle to seek an open Senate seat. Both Angle and O'Donnell lost.



'Voters in Charge'



"The voters are now in charge, and Republican leaders need to come to terms with that," Dowd said. "The media needs to drop the myth that there is a Republican establishment capable of orchestrating anything more than a one-float GOP parade."

Romney's campaign, backed by well-known party strategists and fundraisers, has kept up a steady rollout of endorsement announcements from Republican elected leaders that demonstrate his broad support among the insiders. As of Jan. 20, he had the nods of five governors, 14 senators and 59 U.S. House members. That compares with two governors and a dozen congressmen who have endorsed Gingrich, according to Democracy in Action, a political web site that tracks endorsements.



'Terrified About Newt'



"There are a lot of major players in the Republican Party who are terrified about Newt," said Gary Gerstle, a specialist on social and political movements a Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. "At a more conventional moment in American politics, the establishment would count for a lot more, but this is not a conventional moment. There are now big segments of the Republican Party that will not bow down to the establishment."


Gingrich -- who served 20 years in Congress, four of them as speaker, and then began a lucrative career in Washington consulting on federal policy -- has been working to turn party leaders' angst about his candidacy to his advantage, portraying himself as a candidate feared by the ruling class.

In a Jan. 24 message to supporters, he wrote, "The establishment is right to be worried about a Gingrich nomination because a Gingrich nomination means that we're going to change things."

The Romney-Gingrich face-off is bringing the simmering power struggle between the Republican grassroots and the party establishment to the fore, said Richard Viguerie, a veteran Republican direct-mail strategist and the chairman of ConservativeHQ.com.



Internal Power Struggle



"There is a war going on here between the grassroots and the establishment," said Viguerie, who is backing former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. "People in the grassroots see the Republican establishment as part of the problem, not part of the solution, and Gingrich has the ability to go over the heads of the Republican leaders."

At the root of the concern about Gingrich is whether he will be able to appeal to the broader U.S. electorate. Polls indicate that he has high unfavorability ratings and wouldn't fare well in a head-to-head matchup against Obama. A January Gallup study found that all national political figures are viewed negatively. Still, "Americans have become more intensely negative in their evaluations of Newt Gingrich -- who now has the lowest score overall," the study concluded.



Independent Voter Turn-off



Gingrich's branding of Obama as a "food stamp president," for example, may not play well with independent voters, whom a Republican nominee would have to win over to have a chance of ousting the president.

Some prominent Republicans say there's not yet enough of a consensus that Gingrich is unelectable to give rise to a concerted effort among party operatives to thwart his ascent.

"I haven't seen that there's an all-hands-on-deck movement to try to block any candidate -- Newt or anyone else," said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, a training organization for state and local Republican candidates once headed by Gingrich, and a former top party official.

The last time there was such an effort was in 1996, he added, after Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary and prominent Republicans quickly coalesced around Bob Dole, who ultimately claimed the nomination.

"I haven't heard that kind of alarm emanating about Newt," Donatelli said.

Former Pennsylvania Congressman Bob Walker, a senior adviser to Gingrich's campaign, said each time Romney rolls out a new endorsement or dispatches a one-time colleague to criticize Gingrich's record, it bolsters the former speaker's argument to voters that he's their ally against a party machine that doesn't care about them.

"It took them a little bit of time to realize that Newt Gingrich is capable of beating Obama, but now, I don't think that they're going to listen to party bosses anymore," Walker said. "Newt is basically channeling the people's anger."

And how about her becoming the darling of the gay segment of the R party? And she was for Christie!!! That says a lot right there.

People, we need to forget about these damn polls and trying to vote for the winner. Vote for the man that you think fits you best and let him become the winner, or not, and then in November, vote against the Muslim. miles

Vote for the man who has a decent chance of beating BHO.

I'm thinking that if The Newt is nominated he could go down in a Goldwater style landslide.

I like him but don't at all like his chances in the Big One.

I have endorsed Romney and re-affirm that endorsement.

So no different than any of the other candidates or what we currently have in Washington.

I can't stand Romney, but will vote for him if he is there in November. miles

Newt�s 1986 criticisms of Reagan were in large part a concern that we could still lose the Cold War with the Soviets.

In 1986 Reagan still had to deal with Tip O�Neill who was the longest-serving liberal Speaker of the House.

January 25, National Review/Drudge Report:
Gingrich and Reagan
In the 1980s, the candidate repeatedly insulted the president.
By Elliott Abrams

�The best examples come from a famous floor statement Gingrich made on March 21, 1986.
This was right in the middle of the fight over funding for the Nicaraguan contras; the money had been cut off by Congress in 1985, though Reagan got $100 million for this cause in 1986.

Here is Gingrich: �Measured against the scale and momentum of the Soviet empire�s challenge, the Reagan administration has failed, is failing, and without a dramatic change in strategy will continue to fail. . . . President Reagan is clearly failing.� Why? This was due partly to �his administration�s weak policies, which are inadequate and will ultimately fail�; partly to CIA, State, and Defense, which �have no strategies to defeat the empire.� But of course �the burden of this failure frankly must be placed first on President Reagan.� Our efforts against the Communists in the Third World were �pathetically incompetent,� so those anti-Communist members of Congress who questioned the $100 million Reagan sought for the Nicaraguan �contra� rebels �are fundamentally right.� Such was Gingrich�s faith in President Reagan that in 1985, he called Reagan�s meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev �the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with Neville Chamberlain in 1938 in Munich.�

I'm not so sure about that. I had the pleasure of spending a little time with one of our U.S. senators last week, and when I said "Go Newt" to him it looked like I threw a snake on him.

Kinda where I am.


dave