Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Canada - US Softwood deal is a total sellout!!!

SU35:

I'm sure you met a lot of English-speaking Canadians, too. Unless you hear them say "out" or "about", you can hardly tell them from Americans.

- TJM

Kutenay, be realistic. The US is, what, 65% of your market. That's cutting off more than your nose. I, like SU35, am in the lumber business; have been for 35 years. I've seen a lot of changes and struggles between our countries over this issue. This whole situation, particularly over the last 12 years has degenerated to a lot of saber-rattling in order to preserve pride on both sides of the border. It has affected a lot of "bystanders" as a result. How many Canadian mills have had to close as a result? How many families have had to(try to) start over. Granted, there are other markets for Canadian species, Japan and the like, but those have proven cyclical and marginally dependable. Many of those markets have been grabbed by other exports from Australia, NZ and Central America as their resource bases have come to marketable maturity in the last 20 years. The single exception seems to be cedar, but the enviros have screwed that one up. Is isolationism really the answer? If that's your take on it, your interests are too narrow in scope. Just look at the difference in housing starts in Canada vs. the US. Even in poorer years, we have a huge appetite. Like it or not, we keep many of you employed. I'll be glad to see this govt. piss-fest go away and things get back to "normal". End of rant.

Well, I wrote a long and rather intelligent (if I say so myself) discussion on this however my computer tossed it into the cybergarbage can so I will do my best to rewrite it.

Kutenay,

You and I agree on a lot of things regarding Canada's natural resources which is why I am surprised at your reaction to this deal. I view this as a reason for Canada to begin developing finished products for export, rather then raw goods such as dimensional lumber. It's also a good reason for Canada to diversify it's markets into new countries. Like 8ball said, a huge amount of our exports go to the US. Diversifying into other countries will not only have a stabilizing effect on our own economy, it will prevent our livelyhoods from being as effected by US trade decisions and politics. This combined with the surge in the Canadian dollar against the US currency will likely result in Canada either exporting more to the Pacific Rim countries and Europe, or developing finished products for export rather then raw goods. However, we can not overreact to this decision by doing the things you suggest (rescinding NAFTA, pulling out of NORAD, taxing Americans going to Alaska, and blocking the Alaska pipeline.) To do these things immediately would invite economic disaster on Canada. Until we are no longer dependent on the export of commodities, we cannot simply shut the door to the US and try and go it alone. The key here is developing an economy that is not dependent on natural resources alone, but diversified with finished products for export. We live in a global economy and export must happen for Canada to become the leader that we both want it to be. As strong as our nationalistic feelings are, we can't afford to not deal globally. And that includes the US.



SS

+1

Not with disrespect to your thoughts on the matter as we all have politicians doing things we dispise, but my thoughts run in a different direction for the most part.

I do not now, nor did I ever support NAFTA. Nor do I embrace globalization at any level. I don't think the societies that comprise the planet's population are sophisticated enough, nor do I think a sufficient level of trust exists to allow such concepts to function. I doubt than mankind's nature regarding greed will ever allow it to be so, central point being there will never be social equality on Earth with the population we have. There aren't enough resources to allow that.

As too the politicians du jour, more often than not we vote for the lesser evil. I know I've been doing it all my life. The individuals aspiring to power are unworthy, those worthy have too much sense to step forward.

Regarding the timber industry, those of us on both side of the border have issues, and we've all been sold a bill of goods. It is my view that we are in a situation wherein supply far outstrips demand in this hemisphere as far as softwood goes. Overseas sales are likely to be your only recourse Brian.

On a personal note, the industry is it's own worst enemy due to clear cut practices in evidence here in the South, and to the degree I've seen it, out in the Rockies as well. Clean up the act and you may engender some sympathy from the average Joe. Sans that the issue remains in the clutches of politicians...the ones from Washington...the ones that are here to help. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />

Just FYI, the deal that was leaked to the media on wed (with the 34% cap) seems to not be the deal that is finally being endorsed. Now the deal is being grudgingly endorsed by most of the big players here in Canada.

But.... I heard a very astute comment by a Canadian logging company insider being interviewed... it galled him that 1 billion dollars of their money (the tariff's collected already) would probably be put in the hands of the american outfits to build a war chest for future lobbying and trade wars... so Cdn companys are literally paying the bill for the US resistence to free trade. I can see why that would irk them....

The only way canada will ever have the clout to push more favourable resolutions to trade disputes is when we have samething the US really wants (electricity/water whatever), and when our politicians have the nerve to link the trade of those commodities with some of the other disputed things. As Seinfeld says.... "We have no hand!!"

This post by D. Dan is among the best on any subject I have ever read on the 'net. I completely agree, NAFTA is great for the corporate elite and squads of useless bureaucraps and a total screwup for the average person in the USA or Canada.

But, this issue is going to continue to be very contentious on both sides of the 49th which gives us all lots to argue about!

I am with Sam Steele on this one, good friends of mine in Ontario have been hurt substantially by this dispute. As long as we want to depend on shipping natural resources out of Canada then we to some degree at the mercy of the other countries.
This dispute has gone on too long already, I am fully versed in all the reasons we are right and the US is wrong, but I don't care anymore. The bigger problem with the lumber industry is the various groups in Canada could never decide what they wanted the deal to look like. I say the lumber industry can now learn to live with a set of rules, not hang on for the day the dispute ends.

Nat gas to heat homes will not skyrocket if there is ample supply to southcentral. A line from the slope helps dwindling supplies from the Cook Inlet basin. Gas supply is certainly one of the factors for the current price rise in SC. Gas to Agrium may have only small benefit in the big city but here it is jobs, economy, local tax base and philanthropy to local organizations. It adds value to a resource before shipping it out of the state, rather than turning it into only CO2 and water.

Also I've heard the gas is needed/wanted for oil extraction of the Alberta tar sands. I'm not familiar with that process so don't know with certainty.

I like Canada and Canadiens, but have no more interest in them controlling our energy supplies (pipeline through Canada) than I do the Q-tips.

Are you suggesting saving the gas for electric generation and heating fuel?

Have heard that since Chevron bought out Unical, that they've done more seismic work in the inlet, and have found that there are signifigant reserves deeper down, and they have a 30 year plan on production. Pretty impressive considering many of the inlet rigs were on the borderline of being shutdown.

I gotta think with increased investment in exploration, they're going to find some more gas.

That's good news. I have not heard that yet but you seem to have some good contacts. At least two platforms were closed in - Baker and Dillon and other company's rigs too perhaps. Dillon is remob-ed for the summer.

When a plan is in place for who gets nat gas and when, it's serious.

It seems to me that there was a dumping of Canadian product at below market prices here and we said enough is enough. Like the Japanese steel a few years back. Sell for a fair price & you won't get your hand slapped. Neeeexxxxt....

The option opther than the one you describe and the one the OIL/GAS companies prefer is the Mackenzie valley pipeline which will come to Ft McMurray Alberta where the pipeline grid for western north america starts. Here natural gas is used to produce steam which is inturn is used to produce oil from the tar sands, the worlds largest oil reserve.. most of which is then sent to the US. The other by product of the steam production is huge amounts of cogen electricy which also goes into the grid serving western north america.
The fields they wish to exploit are connected, big parts are on the canadian side. As to the control over US oil production, most of the oil companies that produce in Canada are American, and unfetterred access to Oil and gas from Canada was the big prize in the Canada US free trade deal negotiated in the 80's.

I was thinking the gas was used as a solvent of sorts on the tar...thanks for the explanation Martin.

Unocal was running running the platforms like a 3rd world outfit, no money to invest, spend only pennies to get what production they can. Chevron has bigger $'s to invest, and are looking long term. I don't recall when they did the recent seismic work, or more in depth analysis, but they see deeper structure that looks promising. They're bringing a rig in this summer to drill down to those prospects.

There's been lot of formations in the state that have been known about for decades, but couldn't be profitably produced at nominal $20/bbl oil. I don't know what they calculate nominal crude prices at for future prospects, but whatever it is, those fields that weren't profitable under the old calculations now pencil out to a tidy profit, and are going to be produced in the next 3,5, 10 years.

I would like to see the gas from Prdhoe brought to market as well, but again, now might not be the best time. What is seldom mentioned is that gas which is constantly re-injected into the resevoirs has aided in extracting out the majority of the oil up there.

The MacKenzie Valley Pipeline should NEVER be built and NAFTA should be rejected by Canada; there is NO valid reason for we Canucks to remain in this travesty of a treaty. I favour a National Energy Policy for Canada that will allow Canadian industry to benefit from our petro-resources; I also favour an immediate end to electricity sales to the USA, for the same reasons.

Do unto others as they do unto you.

I see no benefit in allowing Americans to hunt, fish, wilderness ski or climb in Canada.....yup, I have zero problems with staying out of your country as I have so much more here in mine!

kutenay

Does that mean that Vancouver and Victoria will be off limits to all folks from the U.S? I would be interested in the amount of money dropped by American tourists in these two cities alone compared to the amount spent on hunting and fishing in B.C. I am betting that those two cities cannot afford to lose all the U.S. dollars spent there on tourism.

If you think too much of your wildlife is being sold to U.S. folks don't blame the folks hunting and fishing them, blame whoever is managing them. If the truth is known they probably would rather sell licenses to non-residents because they can charge higher prices.

I agree that NAFTA is a bad deal but I don't think Canada as a whole wants an "Iron Curtain" between them and the U.S. in the big scheme of things. I doubt if it would be a benefit in the long run for B.C. even.

kutenay- I've been reading your garbage now for quite a while and I'm getting a little sick and tired of your whining. Keep your wood, water and snow! We sure as hell don't need you. A few adjustments and we're fine. Whatcha gonna do with all that power you won't be selling us? Going broke most likely. Like it or not you depend on the cash generated by the sales of power. Stay the hell up there and keep the rest of your canucks up there too! You bitch and moan about lost jobs but how many lumbering jobs were lost in Maine when Irving Oil moved in and undercut all of the American outfits? Friends of mine lost everything when the canadian lumberjacks moved in! You can't get through a border town on a weekend with all you Canucks coming across and buying OUR gas cheaper that you can buy it there! The Walmarts there look more like New Brunswick reunions than American stores. Try to get to a beach in the summer - it looks like southern Canada! Most of the parks are packed with you refugees from the north pole. You want to stand on your own two feet? Then do it! For GOD's sake do it! You've been trying for years and can't figure it out yet! See how much the Asian's give you for your wood, you'll be lucky to get enough to cover the cost of shipping, never mind a profit! You can bitch all you want but you'd better face one little reality - like it or not we're stuck with each other and need to make the best of it. One more thing - most of us hate NAFTA! I've got nothing against Canada or even you but your rants have just pissed me off and I'm tired of just sitting here and taking it! As far as I'm concerned, the next disaster, natural or man-made, whoever or wherever it is in the world - F**K THEM! Figure it out yourselves! Take care of yourselves and leave us out of it! Rant over!

Boy, this "You're bad guys, no you're bad guys" garbage sure gets tiring. Don't we have better things to argue about? For instance, I think the 270 is FAR superior to the 280.

Mike
There was sufficient gas in the inlet to power AK for generations. To extract money at today's rates, rather than wait until extraction made sense, they started producing something which was not needed, but could be sold, fertilizer.

Bean-counters base decisions on things like the time-value of money. One of those equations says money not earned within seven years is nearly valueless. That is the reason the gas was converted into fertilizer rather than saved for today...

At the same time, manure and fish waste (among many other items) were becoming a dumping problem because they could not compete as cheap fertilizer. The price of corn is lower than the cost of producing it. Farmers cannot raise beef on corn they grow themselves because corn is so cheap.

Manure from stockyards is too hot and too salty for decent fertilizer without purifying, so petroleum-based fertilizers are used. If the Agrium fertilizer was not there it would only cost a trifle more to use the manure as fertilizer. Fish by-products could compete for use, also.

While Agrium provides a few perks for the locals the net cost is far higher than it appears. My natural gas bill has gone through the roof since the contracts for cheap gas started expiring and new ones written, for example. Finding new gas and signing long-term contracts for it will raise my bill a lot more.

As for local jobs, just how many North Kenai Residents do you want hanging about? <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

My problem with Agrium is based on all aspects of what they are doing and find it a criminal waste of the resource. YMMV
art