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Okay, don't know how definitive this is, but it's very interesting. It has me leaning towards the pre-1899 transition musket.

There exists a picture of an expo with a Savage display from the late 1890's. Hanging above the display is a sign that reads:

"THIS IS THE SAVAGE RIFLE THAT WON THE CONTEST FOR ARMING THE STATE OF NEW YORK MILITIA"

The musket hanging there looks to be the pre-1899 transition musket. It has finger grooves on the sides, unlike both Fug's and the Cody museum muskets, it has no side panels on the buttstock, unlike both Fug's and the Cody, and Fug pointed out that it has a bayonet attached which the pre-1899 musket allows for, but both 1895 muskets don't have an attachment for.

I can't think of a good reason that Savage would drag out a non-standard musket for display if a standard 1895 musket in 303 Savage had won the contest. I'm sure they kept a couple of standard 1895 muskets around until the start of the 1899's so that Arthur could keep trying to get military contracts.