Couple thoughts...
The 1:4 restrictions would impact about 4-5% of resident sheep hunters and about 2% of NR, mostly next of kin. Lots of probability in there when you consider weather issues, poor lamb/ram recruitment years etc. The end of the day its 4-5% reduction of hunters over a 4 year block.
Based on the last 10 years worth of data... Roughly 80% of resident hunters have hunted 2 times or LESS in the last 10 years, 75% of them being unsuccessful. Roughly 60% of all resident sheep hunters are going their first and likely only time each year. Roughly 93% of all NR hunters are going their first and only time, roughly 70% of them are successful.
The 1:4 hunts are more feel good than management. It makes the "have nots" feel good that they're somehow limiting take by reducing the "killers" from killing more. I spoke at length about this with ADFG. Really we only have bear management to compare this to.
The peninsula bear hunts went to a 1:4 prior to the every other year hunt season restriction. The 1:4 was a carry over after the season split. The bio I spoke with had heard from a few outfitters that they would easily be able to book return NR clients if they could.
After the 1:4 rule, the reality is about 2-3% of both resident and NR return to hunt bears for a second time 4+ years later. Its a one and done type hunt, the 1 in 4 did nothing, the split season is more effective. Also... 80-82% of bears on the Peninsula are taken by NR hunters. If we go the same way with sheep, I think we'll see the % of animals taken by NR sway to similar direction.
There is no way to ensure residents get the "majority" of the animals because so many residents are novice hunters and don't have the means to compete. That's reality. Can't fault NR for killing more animals, they're just more fortunate or more prepared and have saved the cash to make it happen. How do you take wealth out of the equation? Good luck with that... IMO, eliminate the guide requirement, and set a limit on the number of permits issued. Don't even have to reduce the number of permits issues, just level the playing field. Changing the rule requires a trip through the legislature. They will not pass or undue a rule that would reduce money coming into the state.
If we go statewide draw it will be a total cluster and the folks that really want to hunt sheep on a regular basis will be reduced to getting the scraps from the ones that don't even care if they hunt more than once in their life. So who do we cater to the ones who really have no stake (one and done) or the ones who like to hunt?
Since the draw was implemented in the Chugach, we're seeing a NR harvest swing. NR are killing close to 80% of the sheep now. When it was a HT it was similar to what we had statewide. 60/40 split (Res/NR). The residents who draw the tags are pulled for a pool of hunters, where a large majority have never hunted sheep, or are completely ill prepared. Remember 60% go their first and only time each year... They can't compete with an outfit who has hunted the same area for years. Really no different than any other hunt where locals, or a hunter has the knowledge.
I wish we had the magic bullet for the "issue" but we don't have one.
IMO the 1:4 is probably the dumbest rule you could implement.
