alot of Trumps presidency will ultimately be defined by the economy.

remember when 5 or fewer of these are false, the incumbent is predicted to win

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
(TRUE) Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
(TRUE)Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
(TRUE..if there is it will split Democratic votes progressives against moderates )Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
(? - What will 2019 look like?) Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
(TRUE) Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
(TRUE..for now) Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
(TRUE) Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
(TRUE--who they gonna get? Warren? Booker? Oprah?) Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings