Interesting points elk makes. Nobody talking about them either.
I did back in the thread 2 days ago. This scenario is possible. Elkslayer has good points on this. Fauci was questioned about the second spike yesterday and all of a sudden he says now you can't always rely on the models. Been touting his models until then.
What is a greater worry to you? CV-19 or Economy? [Re: RAS]#1473784404/03/20
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Kyhilljack
Campfire Regular
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,464
North central southern region
What is a greater worry to you? CV-19 or Economy?
Cv-19 is my main concern. Because it, or more precisely the temporary measures to contain it, being forced upon society will do great damage to the economy.
The duration of the containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all. Basically the virus needs to 'wash over' the populace. Then antigens will be formed in most. By implementing social distancing and self-quarantine they are not allowing this to happen. When you lift these measures you are going to see a natural spike in infections again and the same amount of people that will die will equal the the number of people that would have died with no mitigations in place. The one thing the mitigations does is buy you some time to possibly upgrade the hospital capabilities.
These mitigations themselves are not saving lives ; instead, it is what we do with the time that gives us an opportunity to improve the outcome of the epidemic.
