Yes, canned leopard hunts have happened. Quick background.
About 8-10 years ago, in Namibia the procedure for getting a leopard permit was different than now. CITES export permits are issued to each govt . The govts are allowed to regulate how the permitting is done in each country Previously, the Namibian govt got is annual CITES allocation of leopard export permits - 500 or so, and they were all held by the MET (Ministry of Environment and Tourism). The actual lic/permit was not obtained by the PH/Outfitter for the client until AFTER the leopard was shot. If more leopard were shot then the govt had CITES permits for that year, the skins were just held over until the following year's quota was allocated. Those previously left over cats got the first permits in the new allocation. The other thing that was going on was IF RSA used up it's leopard CITES allocation, RSA PH's/Outfitters were smuggling skins into Namibia and paying Namibian PH's/Outfitters to pull the CITES permit in their name for the RSA client as though it was shot in Namibia. Here's how that entire thing came unraveled.
There was a PH/Outfitter in Namibia who advertised 100% guaranteed leopard hunts and would actually shoot 5-6 or more a year and had been doing so for a good number of years. Because of his reputation and "100%" success rate he was one of the highest priced leopard hunts in the country. He did have a large game farm of his own and he did hunt several other surrounding properties as well. During the off season he was also known as being the guy the cattle ranchers would call to come and live trap problem leopards and get them off their property - he'd even pay the landowners under the table. He was telling the landowners he was taking the cats to different communal lands or National Parks and turning them loose. What he was actually doing was taking them to his place. If they were females, he'd turn them loose on his property (would help draw males). He had also built some large holding cages and kept a number of the biggest Toms he'd live trapped there. So.......
An unsuspecting client would show up and they would actually conduct a "proper hunt" - pre baits, blinds and all and if the client got a cat, it was all good. Now, if it was getting down to the last couple of days, he'd tell his workers to heavily sedate one of the caged cats and place it in a certain place, either up on a bolder on a kopje or a tree limb by a certain time. Then when he and the client were out checking baits or going to/from one of the blinds, he'd "spot" the cat and make a big show of it all and how the cat was "sleeping" because it must have just fed heavily on a nearby bait. They'd ease out of the bakkie and the client would shoot the cat. They get to the cat, it's dead and the client isn't any the wiser.
How this all came unraveled is, every year at or near the end of the hunting season all the PH's get together and have a big party. Well, this guy got SERIOUSLY drunk and started telling the story of the American client he'd had that year. He was laughing about the clients general lack of hunting/shooting skill, being so fat he couldn't walk more than 100m from the bakkie, snored all night in the blind etc. As he goes on, the hunt gets to the ending days and low and behold, they see a leopard sleeping on a bolder part way up a kopje maybe 75m away. Client takes a shot from the back of the bakkie and misses. Hits the bolder and the cat is still "asleep". "Your in luck, shoot again!". Second shot misses. "Quick, shoot again!". Third shot finally hits the cat and it rolls around and off the rock. Congratulations all around etc. This guy is laughing like crazy while telling the story and drinking even more and then guys listening start asking him questions and he spills the beans about his cages etc.
Long story short. He's turned into the MET, looses his PH license and his property is delisted as a registered game farm meaning he can't have clients hunting on it at all, ever. At the same time, the other Namibian PH/Outfitters pitched a bitch about the number of Namibian permits being issued to RSA clients etc. As a result, leopard hunting in Namibia was closed for a year or a little more. When it was reopened the current system was put in place.
Currently, the country still gets it's CITES quota. The MET then allocates the quota to the landowners (maybe one permit) but they must apply to get an allocation the year before. They have to submit a fairly detailed letter on the number of leopard they believe are in the area and on their property and it's also based on if they received a permit the previous year and filled it or not - the 2021 allocations were just released a few weeks ago. The actual permit is still held by the MET and the PH has to go there and get the permit filled out in the clients name BEFORE the client even arrives in country. If the client is not successful, the permit is returned to the MET. A landowner can legally sell his quota/allocation to another PH but, the process is the same, has to be filled out in the clients name before the client arrives in country. This has shutdown the RSA cheating that was going on previously. Since the new procedures were put in place, its not unusual for the county to not full it's CITES export quota.
So, the story above does reflect that a "canned" leopard hunt can happen. PH/Outfitters who claim 100% success rates might need to have a few questions asked. So, the previous year, he gets one tag and one client and fills the tag - 100% for the year. Gets one tag and two or three clients and last client fills the tag - PH/Outfitter is 100% for the year but not the clients. PH/Outfitter gets a tag and provides the client with a sold shot opportunity and the client misses or declines the shot for some reason - PH/Outfitter can still claim 100% success because they are only obligated to getting the client a shot opportunity but, not putting the cat in the salt. Another possibility is like my friend Jan with Sebra Hunts. Last year (Sept) he had a leopard client, 21-day hunt, and the client had two solid legitimate shot opportunities and declined both times. Can Jan claim a 200% success rate? All I'm saying is be cautious and ask detailed questions and the old "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably isn't" might apply.
