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Don't get me wrong, I like Palin. I think she is good for the conservative movement but can't when against Obama. Her and McCain got beat once already by him. I think she was one of the big reason Obama won.
She will get all of the conservative vote (including mine if she got the nod), but won't get all of the moderate vote espeacially the left leaning moderates, won't get all of the "don't have a clue vote" and I am sure she will get none of the liberal vote because they hate her more than they are mad at Obama. The liberals do not want a Woman that is anti abortion, pro gun and pro family in the white house. That being said I am sure if she did get the nod the Dems that didn't show up to vote this year will show up in 2012 just to make sure she didn't win. The district lines will help us in the house and senate but I don't see it doing much for the POTUS election except cali and other lib states losing votes.

If this was a perfect world, your numbers would put her in no doubt, but since its not and her getting the nod would bring out the left, it would be too close to call and I think she gets beat.

To get rid of Obama in 2012, we need a moderate conservative (if there is such a thing) that can draw some votes from the left, but still conservative enough to keep the conservative values and fire up the conservative base while not pi$$ing off the left moderates too much to hopefully get the votes from those angry at Obama. Palin can't do that.

Just my opinion and I hope I am wrong, but if she gets the nod I see 4 more years of Dem controlled white house regardless if its Obama or Hilary. Unless the Dem primary race is so ugly and brutal that they destroy each other to the point the party falls apart which would be nice!