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Originally Posted by Valsdad
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.

Interesting. The MSM tonight, ABC I believe we watch, said they are working on a test that is designed to work with antibodies, and will be cheap and quick. Will be fun to see who gets tested and when. Maybe it will be "essential" folks first?

Geno

Who knows. I suppose they could figure out a way for everyone to get tested. How much will that *cost* and wfsts the most economical way to administer the tests properly? Costs of the test itself aside, will the Walmart self checkout give us the test?


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by Fubarski
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
A projection based on the optimistic hope of a four day doubling rate for deaths.


Must be pathetic ta be optimistic about deaths doublin.

But, whatever it takes to accomplish the liberal agenda.

No doubt your "projections" will be as accurate as liberal "projections" bout global warmin.

A doubling rate of four days is a hell of a lot more optimistic than the observed tripling rate of four days.

Get back to me on the ninth of Apr and we will discuss how far my projections are BELOW actual data.

Again, Lord, I hope I am far, far wrong. Nothing could make me happier.

Where is the tripling rate of every four days? Source? Thank you


See the quoted part of post 14703071 above. The data came from Worldometer. Check the graphs provided by other thoughtful participants.

Damn, this thread is growing far faster than I can type, and I got to get up and go to work in six hours.

No data . What specifically are you basing the tripling of deaths every few days on Italy?


I have never written of Italy. All my data is in reference to US.
Mar 16, 86 deaths in US
Mar 20, 256 deaths in US
Mar 24, 775 deaths in US

These numbers are cumulative and come from Worldometer Covid 19 United States.

Good night all.


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄



Yeah, I think there was this study back in the 70's that provided limited data that a 55 MPH speed limit, when enforced and obeyed saved lives.


But dang were people PO'd about it.

So it's back to 70+ on the fwy in most places.

Angel of Death be damned,


Geno


The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
(Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)

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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.


I hope we see random sampling of the population for antibodies sometime in the next six months to a year. If for no other reason than to predict herd immunity and possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting us again next year.

As many have stated here, the one data point which will be uncontested will be the body count.

A straight Body count alone isn’t good enough I don’t believe. It won’t be that black and white. What if someone had part of a lung removed because of cancer and got the virus? A cigarette smoker? On Oxygen already? Diabetic?


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄


Might save a life? That is one thing.
Might save 100,000 lives? That is something else.
Might save 1,000,000 lives? Now we are talking about a big deal.


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Originally Posted by Valsdad
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄



Yeah, I think there was this study back in the 70's that provided limited data that a 55 MPH speed limit, when enforced and obeyed saved lives.


But dang were people PO'd about it.

So it's back to 70+ on the fwy in most places.

Angel of Death be damned,


Geno

Cue “Life in the Fastlane “ YouTube video 😂


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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄


Might save a life? That is one thing.
Might save 100,000 lives? That is something else.
Might save 1,000,000 lives? Now we are talking about a big deal.

I agree


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.


I hope we see random sampling of the population for antibodies sometime in the next six months to a year. If for no other reason than to predict herd immunity and possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting us again next year.

As many have stated here, the one data point which will be uncontested will be the body count.

A straight Body count alone isn’t good enough I don’t believe. It won’t be that black and white. What if someone had part of a lung removed because of cancer and got the virus? A cigarette smoker? On Oxygen already? Diabetic?

Lots of people live very productive lives for ten, twenty, thirty even forty years with one or more of the conditions you mention. Many of them fully employed for many of those years.

It is hard to draw a line to determine the disposable portion of society.


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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
We will never know what the infection rate was on the cruise ship. The passengers were not tested for antibodies as they left the ship. We have no idea what portion of the crew and passengers were ever even exposed to the virus.

Quarantine, you know! Each passenger in his cabin, one or two to a cabin. As soon as infection was discovered.

The above is a not true at all.

FACTS:
1 – The people got attacked early by “silent attack”, and reached immunity (antibodies), and by the time they were tested, their RNA was negative.

2 – It was proven the turd world wait staff employees feeding them were spreading the virus to all passengers when dropping their food off. Passengers could not spread from room to room. As they were exposed every feeding the ship acquired an 80% immunity on board.

3 – Same wait staff, so no passenger could be safe from being exposed.

4 – Identification of cases proved it was everywhere on the ship, but 80% didn’t get it. How? They’d already built immunity, because they were seropositive.

5 - LOW DEATH RATE, and LOW infection rate. FACTS MATTER.


"He is far from Stupid"

”person, who happens to have an above-average level of intelligence


– DocRocket (In reference to ElkSlayer91)



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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Valsdad
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄



Yeah, I think there was this study back in the 70's that provided limited data that a 55 MPH speed limit, when enforced and obeyed saved lives.


But dang were people PO'd about it.

So it's back to 70+ on the fwy in most places.

Angel of Death be damned,


Geno

Cue “Life in the Fastlane “ YouTube video 😂


Geno, we are off topic, but mostly I remember that study showed 55 saved a lot of gas. Especially when everybody drove six thousand pounds of Detroit Steel with 400 plus cubic inches under the hood and the drag coefficient of a cinder block.


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Valsdad
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.

Interesting. The MSM tonight, ABC I believe we watch, said they are working on a test that is designed to work with antibodies, and will be cheap and quick. Will be fun to see who gets tested and when. Maybe it will be "essential" folks first?

Geno

Who knows. I suppose they could figure out a way for everyone to get tested. How much will that *cost* and wfsts the most economical way to administer the tests properly? Costs of the test itself aside, will the Walmart self checkout give us the test?


It will be easy enough to test everyone.

When they line us up for the bar code tattoos they can give us the test, no?

Joking. Honestly, if they test enough folks in enough different areas of the US they will have a pretty good idea statistically what the actual numbers are.

Generally, there is no need to take every marble out of a sack of black and white marbles to determine if it's a 50-50 mix. You can get close enough with sampling.

And what will the costs be for not testing a bunch of folks? Well, if we've done a pretty good job of "self quarantining", then we will have a high proportion of naive subjects when it comes around again. Might be cheaper to know what we're dealing with, eh?

Of course, if the gooberment does it, it will cost us in taxes. If private industry does it, it will cost us as individuals to get tested, maybe more than the .gov way as there will be profit involved, and likely cost us again in tax incentives the gooberment will have to give the companies involved to get them involved in the first place.

One thing's for sure, it won't be "free"............like that $1200 we all gettin' laugh

Free money bro, free money. crazy

Geno


The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.


I hope we see random sampling of the population for antibodies sometime in the next six months to a year. If for no other reason than to predict herd immunity and possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting us again next year.

As many have stated here, the one data point which will be uncontested will be the body count.

A straight Body count alone isn’t good enough I don’t believe. It won’t be that black and white. What if someone had part of a lung removed because of cancer and got the virus? A cigarette smoker? On Oxygen already? Diabetic?

Lots of people live very productive lives for ten, twenty, thirty even forty years with one or more of the conditions you mention. Many of them fully employed for many of those years.

It is hard to draw a line to determine the disposable portion of society.

I’m not indicating any of those scenarios make someone disposable. For the diabetes, I only mention that because I thought I read it was really h ell on diabetics.


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄



The difference between personal choice and consequences and societal choice and consequences, is the latter is done by someone else. Really, in every case, it’s done by someone else, no matter your level of engagement. Regardless of the outcome, this chapter is likely to be one of the greatest events of our lives. More than what it is, but how we react to it, will set a vector for our society.


Originally Posted by 16penny
If you put Taco Bell sauce in your ramen noodles it tastes just like poverty
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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.


I hope we see random sampling of the population for antibodies sometime in the next six months to a year. If for no other reason than to predict herd immunity and possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting us again next year.

As many have stated here, the one data point which will be uncontested will be the body count.

A straight Body count alone isn’t good enough I don’t believe. It won’t be that black and white. What if someone had part of a lung removed because of cancer and got the virus? A cigarette smoker? On Oxygen already? Diabetic?



There is an entire industry devoted to quantifying this stuff. None of these details will be lost on health insurer’s actuarial arms.


Originally Posted by 16penny
If you put Taco Bell sauce in your ramen noodles it tastes just like poverty
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I just see this as a recession with a bunch of folks wanting the gov to tell them what to do more often.

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Originally Posted by ElkSlayer91
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
We will never know what the infection rate was on the cruise ship. The passengers were not tested for antibodies as they left the ship. We have no idea what portion of the crew and passengers were ever even exposed to the virus.

Quarantine, you know! Each passenger in his cabin, one or two to a cabin. As soon as infection was discovered.

The above is a not true at all.

FACTS:
1 – The people got attacked early by “silent attack”, and reached immunity (antibodies), and by the time they were tested, their RNA was negative.

2 – It was proven the turd world wait staff employees feeding them were spreading the virus to all passengers when dropping their food off. Passengers could not spread from room to room. As they were exposed every feeding the ship acquired an 80% immunity on board.

3 – Same wait staff, so no passenger could be safe from being exposed.

4 – Identification of cases proved it was everywhere on the ship, but 80% didn’t get it. How? They’d already built immunity, because they were seropositive.

5 - LOW DEATH RATE, and LOW infection rate. FACTS MATTER.

I have looked and looked for data confirming antibody tests and been unable to find it. Can you provide a link?

Among 3700 passengers and crew, 712 tested positive for Covid 19. Of those 712, 9 died. That is a bit over 1% fatality rate.

Does not say anything about the other 3000 testing positive for antibodies to show they had ever been exposed. So I am interested in facts vs supposition.


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Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
We will NEVER know how many Americans had this virus. Even the CDC says most people will have mild symptoms and recover at home. I don’t know about anyone else , but widespread antibody tests won’t happen imo. Without the data, any numbers based on cases aren’t valid.


I hope we see random sampling of the population for antibodies sometime in the next six months to a year. If for no other reason than to predict herd immunity and possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting us again next year.

As many have stated here, the one data point which will be uncontested will be the body count.

A straight Body count alone isn’t good enough I don’t believe. It won’t be that black and white. What if someone had part of a lung removed because of cancer and got the virus? A cigarette smoker? On Oxygen already? Diabetic?

Lots of people live very productive lives for ten, twenty, thirty even forty years with one or more of the conditions you mention. Many of them fully employed for many of those years.

It is hard to draw a line to determine the disposable portion of society.

I’m not indicating any of those scenarios make someone disposable. For the diabetes, I only mention that because I thought I read it was really h ell on diabetics.


Yes, I have read that as well.


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Originally Posted by kingston
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by alwaysoutdoors
In just a few more days we will all see what will happen. How many of the US deaths had severe illnesses or health complications already? It doesn’t make it OK , but it puts in it perspective.


Yes, it does. Just so we all remember that many, or most even, with comorbidities might have well lived into their eighties or (fewer) possibly nineties had they not caught this terrible virus. Some maybe robbed of a couple months, many more robbed of many years or possibly decades.

Yes it is nature's way. But we should be taking any measures possible to mitigate the loss of life.

A route that I am comfortable is being charted as well as possible by our esteemed President.

Actually, respectfully, no we should not be taking any measure possible. In this country every day ,loss of life is weighed against factors. For example, it is a given a certain amount of people will get cancer and die every year just from pumping gasoline into their vehicles (the list very long) . Risks are part of everyday life. Many Americans aren’t comfortable literally shutting down the economy because it MIGHT save a life. Crazy stuff 😄



The difference between personal choice and consequences and societal choice and consequences, is the latter is done by someone else. Really, in every case, it’s done by someone else, no matter your level of engagement. Regardless of the outcome, this chapter is likely to be one of the greatest events of our lives. More than what it is, but how we react to it, will set a vector for our society.

We are in the beginning- middle of the reaction right now. Lots of factors involved. Depressed economies ‘ and loss of rights’ “buttons” should not be pressed too many times right now.


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Originally Posted by kingston
So, are the sixty-five percenters ready to revisit the study Elkslayer91 cited in the article he cited?

Your graphs showing exponential spikes are worthless, being they fail to show the people who:

1 - Become slightly sick, and recover at home.
2 - Infected and never have symptoms.

The above are not included in the graphs, therefore skewing the denominator number, which invalidates the whole model and invalidates your position.


"He is far from Stupid"

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Originally Posted by ElkSlayer91
Originally Posted by kingston
So, are the sixty-five percenters ready to revisit the study Elkslayer91 cited in the article he cited?

Your graphs showing exponential spikes are worthless, being they fail to show the people who:

1 - Become slightly sick, and recover at home.
2 - Infected and never have symptoms.

The above are not included in the graphs, therefore skewing the denominator number, which invalidates the whole model and invalidates your position.

Is this Sheldon ?


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