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Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600 |
I have a simple mind. I'm not especially good at figuring things out so I just tend not to believe what I'm told. Have you been told that inflation is coming? Let's count they ways how: The stock market was at record highs, fueled by massive earnings spurred by Federal spending Then, the Fed dropped rates even lower, and there were rumors of negative rates Quantitative Easing to Infinity Reserve rate to zero (banks can create infinite amount of currency through lending) Nobody buying Treasuries, so the Fed buys them all, monetizing debt Bi-partisan Fiscal Stimulus to the Moon The Government sends you a check The Fed says it will not hold to its traditional inflation target, seeks more The Democrats win control of the White House and Congress Zero rates forever The Government sends you another check They say it wasn't big enough Nearly half the US dollars in existence were created within the last 12 months The messaging couldn't be louder and more clear if it was on a bull horn in front of your house on Sunday morning. "Everyone" is getting the message. At least all the cool people are. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumer Spending) pauses early during last year's shutdown, then rockets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEAlmost everything is on fire: houses, gold, silver, the NASDAQ, cryptocurrencies, food, building supplies, semiconductors, guns, ammo... Stonks Bitcoin explodes Retail investors want equity securities with 1000:1 P/E ratios rather than cash Mortgage lending soars Your wife's cousin's grandma bought Tesla stock for her grand-daughter. In short: Everyone is shorting the dollar, mostly because they were told to do so. The US Government desperately needs inflation. Without it, the cost of servicing it's debt will be too high in real terms. Therefore it has both signaled and convinced the world that it will "print" dollars into oblivion to make it happen. What if it doesn't happen? What I mean is, what if it doesn't happen soon enough? What if there is a "short squeeze" on the US dollar and while everyone is waiting for the effect of zillions in Fed liquidity, there is the mother of all margin calls? There are numerous scenarios where this is possible, but like I wrote, I am simple minded. I don't know to predict what sequence of factors could cause it, but I do know that inflation of: the currency supply the stock market housing prices bitcoin gas prices food prices will not provide debt relief sufficient to turn bad debts good. The minds at the Fed and Treasury appear to believe that debt deflation is the boogey-man, and not inflation. Their strategy is to reflate and use fiscal stimulus while providing debt relief through inflation. Their track record of creating debt-relieving inflation is poor. If they can't make inflation happen and happen in a way that debt relief happens for other nations, for businesses, and for consumers, the write-off's could destroy currency as fast as they can create it. They've got everyone convinced that they can run the presses to infinity and beyond. The whole market is worried that they'll run them too far, but they don't seem to be concerned that inflation won't even work the way it's hoped. The more the indicators point to deflation, the more radical and extremist the Fed and Treasury get. The expectation of inflation is implicit faith in the Fed to create it.
Last edited by Western_Juniper; 02/25/21.
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 30,993
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 30,993 |
It will happen, and the Fed will be late reacting to it.
10 years over 1.6, highest rates in a year, at it got there fast.
Our markets started getting hammered two days ago, and Asian markets are down up to 3% tonight.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600 |
That's what they said after '08. How are spiking yields or markets getting hammered a sign of inflation? Sounds like a greater demand for dollars vs. bonds or equity.
Last edited by Western_Juniper; 02/25/21.
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Joined: Jun 2008
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jun 2008
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$75k pickup trucks. $8 fast food combo meals. $3 loaf of bread. $4 bag of chips. What inflation??
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 56,311 Likes: 9
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 56,311 Likes: 9 |
$75k pickup trucks. $8 fast food combo meals. $3 loaf of bread. $4 bag of chips. What inflation?? $125 bricks of 22LR, $300/1000 primers.
_______________________________________________________ An 8 dollar driveway boy living in a T-111 shack
LOL
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 9,624 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 9,624 Likes: 1 |
$75k pickup trucks. $8 fast food combo meals. $3 loaf of bread. $4 bag of chips. What inflation?? $125 bricks of 22LR, $300/1000 primers. Yep and people are wondering when Inflation is going to Kick In.
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Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 31,428
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 31,428 |
I am all for a thriving economy. Bring it on.
"I can't be canceled, because, I don't give a fuuck!" --- Kid Rock 2022
Holocaust Deniers, the ultimate perverted dipchits: Bristoe, TheRealHawkeye, stophel, Ghostinthemachine, anyone else?
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Joined: Oct 2004
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Oct 2004
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$15 minimum wage will more than double everything, Except employmnt, those jobs will go away by at least 25%, probably closer to 40%. Jobs (minimum wage/entry level) replaced by automation.
Last edited by Hancock27; 02/26/21.
And these zombies line up and eat from the media’s trough
Cowards CANNOT be free. Nor should they be.
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Nov 2004
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 7,110 |
Real inflation is 5-7 %. The fed has been hinging it.
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Joined: Aug 2002
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2002
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Related question, I think. My checking account has slowly increased to a point that I am uncomfortable with. What to do with some of it, safely, is the question. miles
Look out for number 1, don't step in number 2.
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Campfire Regular
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MMT is the government can print and use unlimited funds for social programs, etc. To fight inflation (remove money from circulation) the government will raise taxes.
That is the attempt right now. The printing and laundering- err, I mean spending is easy. The tax part is the problem.
The dude that called the housing bubble is also calling MMT the downfall of our system. No one will listen this time either.
“Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.” ― Ernest Hemingway
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 6,457
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2013
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You can only get 5 gallons out of a 5 gallon bucket. Print twice as much currency and it buys half as much food. Stock naturally go op, but does it track with the real value of the dollar, and the answer is no. This is a shell game of rape and pillage.
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 14,719 Likes: 2 |
Even birds know not to land downwind!
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,913 Likes: 14
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,913 Likes: 14 |
These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o "May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Campfire Member
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Step back and look at the 10 year treasury yield chart for the last five years we still are at historical lows
If God can get by on 10%, why does the government need 90%
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Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,795
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Sep 2017
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I have a simple mind. I'm not especially good at figuring things out so I just tend not to believe what I'm told. Have you been told that inflation is coming? Let's count they ways how: The stock market was at record highs, fueled by massive earnings spurred by Federal spending Then, the Fed dropped rates even lower, and there were rumors of negative rates Quantitative Easing to Infinity Reserve rate to zero (banks can create infinite amount of currency through lending) Nobody buying Treasuries, so the Fed buys them all, monetizing debt Bi-partisan Fiscal Stimulus to the Moon The Government sends you a check The Fed says it will not hold to its traditional inflation target, seeks more The Democrats win control of the White House and Congress Zero rates forever The Government sends you another check They say it wasn't big enough Nearly half the US dollars in existence were created within the last 12 months The messaging couldn't be louder and more clear if it was on a bull horn in front of your house on Sunday morning. "Everyone" is getting the message. At least all the cool people are. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumer Spending) pauses early during last year's shutdown, then rockets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEAlmost everything is on fire: houses, gold, silver, the NASDAQ, cryptocurrencies, food, building supplies, semiconductors, guns, ammo... Stonks Bitcoin explodes Retail investors want equity securities with 1000:1 P/E ratios rather than cash Mortgage lending soars Your wife's cousin's grandma bought Tesla stock for her grand-daughter. In short: Everyone is shorting the dollar, mostly because they were told to do so. The US Government desperately needs inflation. Without it, the cost of servicing it's debt will be too high in real terms. Therefore it has both signaled and convinced the world that it will "print" dollars into oblivion to make it happen. What if it doesn't happen? What I mean is, what if it doesn't happen soon enough? What if there is a "short squeeze" on the US dollar and while everyone is waiting for the effect of zillions in Fed liquidity, there is the mother of all margin calls? There are numerous scenarios where this is possible, but like I wrote, I am simple minded. I don't know to predict what sequence of factors could cause it, but I do know that inflation of: the currency supply the stock market housing prices bitcoin gas prices food prices will not provide debt relief sufficient to turn bad debts good. The minds at the Fed and Treasury appear to believe that debt deflation is the boogey-man, and not inflation. Their strategy is to reflate and use fiscal stimulus while providing debt relief through inflation. Their track record of creating debt-relieving inflation is poor. If they can't make inflation happen and happen in a way that debt relief happens for other nations, for businesses, and for consumers, the write-off's could destroy currency as fast as they can create it. They've got everyone convinced that they can run the presses to infinity and beyond. The whole market is worried that they'll run them too far, but they don't seem to be concerned that inflation won't even work the way it's hoped. The more the indicators point to deflation, the more radical and extremist the Fed and Treasury get. The expectation of inflation is implicit faith in the Fed to create it. Volatility.
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,913 Likes: 14
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,913 Likes: 14 |
One thing holding the government's body, and soul together is, the greenback dollar is still the best of a bad lot.
These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o "May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,971 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,971 Likes: 1 |
Inflation is already here and has been here - it just doesn’t make the news.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,529 Likes: 3
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,529 Likes: 3 |
Real inflation is 5-7 %. The fed has been hinging it. The Fed wouldn't do something underhanded like removing food and fuel prices from their index......would they?
FJB & FJT
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,801 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,801 Likes: 8 |
Related question, I think. My checking account has slowly increased to a point that I am uncomfortable with. What to do with some of it, safely, is the question. miles Find hard commodities that you will need in a year or five and buy them now. Inflation is already here. I priced some 2x10s yesterday... almost double. OSB is triple over the past year. Steel is up like crazy. Copper is double (per a friend)... have not checked. Houses are scarce and high priced. Small business and farms are under assault and many are folding. Large businesses (DOW JONES et al) are picking up huge bargains as the middle implodes... that is why the market is still hanging on.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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