Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock Market Futures for Monday

The last few weeks was just a sucker rally. YTD, it was down 20% . That is official bear country, but we only saw a glimpse of the bear. Now we are back up a bunch as of yesterday . Now today we are down premarket. It will whipsaw back and forth but this market NEEDS a good , real bear to come and tear things till there is nothing left but the crying and the weeping . We should be down 30% from the top and that was the beginning of the year. As for me, I am up 9.5% YTD. I had 24% energy stocks and a lot of utilities. Those are the only 2 sectors that are positive for the year. I am concerned however, that oil is going to face some real headwinds in price. Many will dump it cause of recession fears. and bring the price down. However, the energy companies are making an awfull lot of money right now. Even at $70 barrel they will do very well. For those who care Hainsebrand ,Smith & Wesson is also likely a buy. GM is likely undervalued. Bonds are over sold and despite threats of higher interest rates , bonds will do ok for quite some time. I sold the rest of my British Petroleum stocks yeasterday and bought soem Chevron , Spirit Realty, a Charles Schwab inflation protected ETF. It pays about 7% dividends ( SCHP is the ticker) and it went up yesterday. PTY went up 1.3% yesterday. A solid sign that it is safe to say there should be a rally in the bond market cause I dont think I ever saw 1.3% raise on a bond in one day. High dividend Muni bonds have done very well the last few weeks after a 1 yr. downturn. HYD pays about 3.8% tax free divies.

Good jobs report will whack the crap out of the market today.

A bad report may have given the FED cause to pause and be a positive for the markets but the economy and inflation are rolling right on along.

what about the commercial real estate market collapsing and the coming mass lay offs?

May 23, 2022

To June 9, 2022

Not been around much...

Placing concrete is is VERY HARSH places....

June 13, 2022 7:32 AM

Gonna be an interesting week...



Wonder who Joey will blame this week...

Still looking for a 30,000 DOW (or lower) before buying back in. Pretty sure it will happen by end of June.

I’d recommend you all buy today. I’m set up to buy on the 15th, and it always goes up just before then.

While this market is down as much as it is, I’m initiating a Roth conversion for a chunk. Tax rates will certainly never be lower, and with the market down, I can convert more for the same tax hit. It’ll be good to reduce future RMD’s and eventually the heirs can avoid the new 10 year rule. If I don’t spend it all on hookers and blow, of course.

That is a pretty reasonable guess I can go with. 30,000 is in the area of the Pre-Covid collapse highs which would put the Dow down 20% off the peak but if the qqq's reach the same spot they would be down 42%.

The Fed will have effectively tooketh away that which they gaveth.....at least the latest maybe biggest round of it.

You guys aaking for sub $30k Dow... got your wish... jump right on back in whenever you like.



June 16, 2022 11:18 AM

Maybe around 26 or 27. ways to go yet. QQQ a long ways yet. Lots of tech companies are to go going teats up

When you say "tech companies"... I ALWAYS think overexuberant, fast easy money millennials with zero trials and tribulations experience...

Dudes and dudettes drinking Pappy Van Winkle 20 with ginger ale on ice.

It's just an image I have... but I happy to share it.

I wonder if they are having paw paw pain right about now?

I think we're about to discover the "chip shortage", like a lot of other shortages, was caused by government money printing.

There a lot of folks that have made a lot of money in tech over the years. I know a few.

LOL... Chip Shortage.

My ass there was ever a chip shortage.

THINK ABOUT IT...

The US of A cannot make or contract to have made a $25 microchip to release a trillion dollars worth of light and heavy trucks...

Horse chit...

Agree... I have done very well with Tech over the years myself...

BUT the industry has drifted from logic to fantasy (in many (not all) cases)... That is what I spoke of.

Tech is FAR REMOVED from reality in many many cases... again... not all... but many.

Samsung has asked that their suppliers slow down IB material as they're sitting on inventory. Chips should be flowing soon. Heavy truck OEM guys I talked to - could not get chips, couldn't get them made (we're not talking cookies here) and just suffered through it. Right now you can steal a brain box from a Freightliner in about 30 seconds and there's a couple grand worth of chips in it - kills the truck dead. Super hard to replace.

RE tech - I dealt with mostly freight tech guys. Those entering the market were former high finance or other industries that saw another ripe for disruption. Raised a ton of capital and their "solutions" ended up looking for problems. All they were doing was digitizing old processes - not really creating new ones or massive efficiencies. They were guys in their 40's to 50's (average start up founder's age is 42 IIRC) raising cash because there was about zero POC needed on crazy stupid multiples.

Upside to some of these guys exiting will be the talent they horded being available to those with REAL solutions.

What a fantastic opportunity all this presents.

Waiting on the sidelines until it begins to stabilize.

I Did That and I Ain’t leaving to your All Pudd’n ..

“ You ain’t seen Nothing Yet”

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Buy! Buy! Buy!



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