If the virus is left to run its course without preventative action:
Assumptions:
-Case fatality rate of Korea is around 3%. They had done lots of testing and contact tracing. It is unlikely they are missing large number of cases.
-Good medical care saves about 50% of the ICU cases.
-Herd immunity is 60-70%...let us call it 200M for simplicity.
-People 40 and over are at significant risk, risk increases with age.
-15-20% of cases need hospital care.
-Hospital beds in U.S....+/- 2.6/1000
What that means if we do nothing and no effective treatments are found:
-Best case 6M dead
-Hospitals will be overwhelmed, case fatality could go as high as 6%.
-Worst case 12M dead.
That is why all the countries have taken serious action once they realize what this virus really is.
I have no agenda and I wish it were otherwise. But after researching from every angle I can think of, above is the conclusion reached for just letting it run its course.
The best way to mitigate economic damage verses cost of human life is with testing. Both for those with the disease and those who have antibodies (and presumably have some immunity). We didn't get on the testing soon enough, it is everywhere right now...so until we get a handle on it, a shutdown is required.
Hoping someone with knowledge can poke a hole in the logic...
