The amount of freight/packages being moved right now is higher than any time in history. Last year the index was at 10169 basis points - now it's at 14759 basis points and that's the lowest it's been since August.
Holiday spending is up 19% y/y - much of that ending up into the parcel final mile. Amazon actually delivers about 2/3's of their own packages on Amazon trucks - while areas that aren't service internally are serviced via FedEx and USPS. Amazon will deliver more packages on their own this year than FedEx will deliver this year of any type.
Los Angeles container count for November was up 22% y/y and at the end of the month with another 16 ships off the port waiting for space to unload (100k containers). Right now there are 15 ships dockside with another 23 anchored in the bay - waiting for space between LA and Long Beach. Forecasts show January to be up 5% over 2020. It's going to be tight like this for a while.
Add that now you have the COVID vaccines into the pipe line which will take priority over all else - it's going to be messy. I'm not blaming COVID - I AM saying that there's finite capacity and we're seeing demand well beyond that even without COVID reducing the # of available workers to move it or the added stress of a vaccine in the pipeline.
You have first, middle and final mile. Where the parcel industry will struggle is middle mile - DC to FC/Final mile delivery. Stuff will sit in those DC's until they can move them.
