I think President Trump is the only person in history that stands a true chance of winning on a third party ticket IF the voting system can be fixed to insure a fair vote tallying process.
So with that said, it's not that the Republican party will be fractured; they are divided already! The problem facing the 2024 election is the same as in 2020; there is no integrity in our voting process.
No matter if President Trump gained 90million votes, the democrat opponent will get 91million. As Rush would say "don't doubt me folks"
