another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.
My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.
If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?
yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?
yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending
You seem very confident in this. You can make money on your prediction by selling S&P futures or if you don't want the risk then you can buy puts on S&P futures. You are predicting it happening pretty quickly so there shouldn't be that much time value in the contracts. Are you doing any of this to capitalize on your prediction?
Ive dabbled in futures. Majority of money on sidelines for now. I picked up some NVIDIA, Intest, last week and Qcom a few weeks ago.
Im doing some swing trading. I bought HUT, USWS, CNTA, SDG a few weeks ago too. sell orders in . Have some orders in on some precious metal mining stocks as they are near 52 week lows. I want cash for realestate this winter or next spring so that's my main goal now but could change. Changes happen so often that try and be prepared. Debts paid off being patient
I pulled out of market in Dec 2019 and jumped in end of March 2020. Did ok especially on energy stocks
Who knows if Im right? Just my two cents. Im not very positive. Staring two world wars during a bad recession with the world's super powers for no reason other to enrich bureaucrats generally make me uneasy,
good luck to all
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?
yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending
You seem very confident in this. You can make money on your prediction by selling S&P futures or if you don't want the risk then you can buy puts on S&P futures. You are predicting it happening pretty quickly so there shouldn't be that much time value in the contracts. Are you doing any of this to capitalize on your prediction?
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.
My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.
If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
What's actual inflation rate calculating in true cost of living? Well over 20 per cent. How many years since it has been that high?
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by antlers
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.
My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.
If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
That said, I don’t really give a flip about any single year. Other’s might. Everybody’s situation is different, and everybody’s time frame is different. I’m in it strictly for the long haul…and not for me…but for my kids.
The stuff that I already had during ‘08 and ‘09, I left it alone, and I’m very glad that I did. And I jumped in significantly more during ‘08 and ‘09 and I’m very glad that I did.
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
That said, I don’t really give a flip about any single year. Other’s might. Everybody’s situation is different, and everybody’s time frame is different. I’m in it strictly for the long haul…and not for me…but for my kids.
The stuff that I already had during ‘08 and ‘09, I left it alone, and I’m very glad that I did. And I jumped in significantly more during ‘08 and ‘09 and I’m very glad that I did.
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Ecomony and Fed crashing for the Economic Reset.
90% of stocks controlled by the Bolshevik Neonazis.
They are all going down. There are laws against them working with foreign actors, like Chyna, to overthrow the US Govt in time of declared war. Its called subversion.
Dont say Trump didnt tell you. He said he was going to fix it so this crooked govt and voting schiett never happens again. He gave you a clue.
Ill repeat it for you.
Ecc 10:2 The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Ecomony and Fed crashing for the Economic Reset.
90% of stocks controlled by the Bolshevik Neonazis.
They are all going down. There are laws against them working with foreign actors, like Chyna, to overthrow the US Govt in time of declared war. Its called subversion.
Dont say Trump didnt tell you. He said he was going to fix it so this crooked govt and voting schiett never happens again. He gave you a clue.
The way you post at the top of the quotes doesn't allow me to quote you and answer directly. It is a bit awkward how you do that, but that is your style. To answer your inflation question is pretty straight forward. That would benefit equity ownership and hurt cash or debt.
You would think all the promotion by the gold bugs would be having the sun shine on their azz, but it isn't. This should be the perfect storm based on their narrative of debt, inflation, wars, printing of dollars, fiat, etc.... Why isn't gold at $5,000 per oz or more? Maybe because it doesn't really work like they think it does.
Where did I say gold was a great investments? Ive stated repeatedly the past two years gold and silver weren't great investments in the market. If there is a big correction I might jump with a low percentage in precious metals
The stock market no longer follows fundamental and is heavily manipulated by big banks, insider trading by insiders like Pelosi and of course the fed. I got out of gold and silver in Nov 2020 ( I had less than 10 per cent at the time in portfolio) because of the manipulation and obviously crypto has helped keep down precious metals.
Would you advise 67 year old investor to take the same investment strategies and risk as a 37 year old now?
who knows if Im right? Certainly better than Jim Cramer stock expert lol
Originally Posted by Longbob
ribka,
The way you post at the top of the quotes doesn't allow me to quote you and answer directly. It is a bit awkward how you do that, but that is your style. To answer your inflation question is pretty straight forward. That would benefit equity ownership and hurt cash or debt.
You would think all the promotion by the gold bugs would be having the sun shine on their azz, but it isn't. This should be the perfect storm based on their narrative of debt, inflation, wars, printing of dollars, fiat, etc.... Why isn't gold at $5,000 per oz or more? Maybe because it doesn't really work like they think it does.
You didn't say anything about gold and I did not attribute it to you. I put that in my comment like you interjected inflation.
There is much more involved about advising any investor than simply their age. That is only one of many considerations.
Microsoft and google just released their earnings and they missed expectations but their stock prices went up today after the Fed said inflation will keep rising. That's a sign of a strong stable market lol
How much is the fed spending a day buying assets? What is it now 380 million?
Pretty classic up and down at the start of a recession. By 2023, we'll begin to see the drag downward again. There's some deals right now, there will be more in a few more quarters.
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
True, but a few ok days in the market are better than attempting to time the market, and missing those days. However, people are free to make their own investment decisions.
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.
Irrational exuberance?
Desperation... moreover... I would call it.
MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...
That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"
(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)
And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.
The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...
Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".
Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.
I bought some tech stocks in June on lows I’m selling soon. Decent returns. Long term now no way
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent
one ok day in the market doesn't matter
True, but a few ok days in the market are better than attempting to time the market, and missing those days. However, people are free to make their own investment decisions.
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.
Irrational exuberance?
Desperation... moreover... I would call it.
MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...
That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"
(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)
And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.
The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...
Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".
Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.
Irrational exuberance?
Desperation... moreover... I would call it.
MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...
That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"
(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)
And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.
The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...
Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".
Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.
Quality, diversified items in the portfolio and take the long view .
Disclaimer: This is not directed at anybody in this thread or any other market thread.
There are generally two approaches to investing, Fundamental or Technical. Some people mix in a little of both, but let me explain the major differences. Technical is more or less chart reading and patterns. The technical approach is data mining to find a repeating pattern that they feel can forecast the future with some form of accuracy. I am not a big fan of it, but it does have its place.
Fundamental, or qualitative, investing is the analysis of the actual company, commodity, bond, real estate, precious metal, crypto currency, etc.... I favor this one because it makes a bit more sense to me and is exactly what Warren Buffett follows for example. He follows the Benjamin Graham/David Dodd school of investing. They did an extensive study which had an advantage over time (Technical vs Fundamental) and gave the edge to the Fundamental style. True or not it is far easier for me to sink my teeth into and it is far more simple in my opinion.
Basically, you take every investment that interests you and you feel has a legitimate spot in your portfolio which could consist of certain stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto.....whatever you feel you understand. This is now your universe of investments. Take each one of those investments and study it until you can assess a fair value to said investment. Then you let Mr. Market do its thing in its own manic/depressive way. Graham and Dodd labeled it Mr. Market and called it a manic/depressive.
Don't make it harder than it has to be. No reason to fight the market for your particular investment. Let it do all the work. What I mean by that is once you have established a fair value for your investment then wait until the market discounts your investment (depressive) to a point that you are comfortable in purchasing it. The discount to fair value is called "margin of safety." The greater the margin of safety the less important your fair value calculation needs to be.
Now you allow the market to do its thing again. Once the market gets manic on your investment then you reduce or outright sell as it nears or surpasses your calculated fair value. You do need to constantly re-evaluate the fair value because things will affect it like dividend increases or reductions on a stock.
There is a bit more advanced way of portfolio construction with value investing and it can be quite effective independent of tax issues and transaction costs. It is called playing the margin of safety game. You take two similar investments which you have assessed the fair value. It can be real estate, precious metals, or even two similar stocks like Chevron Texaco and Exxon Mobil.
Say you own Exxon Mobil which you bought at a discount to fair value of 50%. XOM has increased in value, but it is still 10% below your calculated fair value. It is sometimes difficult to close that gap like losing the last 10 lbs of fat. Then you look at your Chevron Texaco research and discover that it is trading at 25% discount to your fair value calculation. The process would be to exchange part or all of the XOM position for CVX. Again as long as tax and trading costs are not too impactful. Chasing the greatest discount to fair value is a possible way to reduce risk in a portfolio and give the position more room to move towards fair value.
There is no reason to fight or try to guess what the market is going to do. It will rise dramatically, fall precipitously, and level off for an extended period of time....but not necessarily in that order. YMMV
It’s gotta be quite a challenge in the investment business for one to stay current each year with the changes enacted and those proposed for the future so that personal planning can be effective for clients.
Someone described it as being a perpetual puzzle wrapped in a conundrum, shoved inside of an enigma.
Still a long way to go, but according to two different sources this morning traders are rushing to cover shorts and get back in the market. Continue to be very happy that I didn’t capitulate back in June. Just wondering what the Campfire market gurus think?
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." Hunter S. Thompson
I think the market will slowly recover from covid over the next 4 years.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
Too old to “jump ship” now….I’ll ride it out and hope that I don’t go down with the ship. Still down about 100K …..slowly recovering! memtb
You should not use a rifle that will kill an animal when everything goes right; you should use one that will do the job when everything goes wrong." -Bob Hagel
It’s been going the right direction for the last week or so.
Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick your poison and buy a set amount monthly.
I have a conservative friend with a day trading licence that made $2M in oil futures in 2008 and then lost $1M in 2009.
Per my investment system and personal disposition, that is insanity.
I stayed fully invested through the 1987 stock crash.. and a year later it was like it never happened.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
The FED’s Powell said today that he’s encouraged by what he is seeing with inflation at this point in time but he does not presently see the possibility of rate cuts in 2023.
I’ve been plowing money into a NASDAQ index fund through this whole fiasco. I’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
We had cell phones in 1980 [my wife worked on a cell synthesizer then], personal computers in 1977 [my boss bought one from Radio Shack then], and world wide web in 1994 [I was working on an ultrasound cart design with a website inside then].
But when they became popular ~~2000 is when the NASDAQ exploded and crashed. [I was on a plane load of unemployed engineers leaving seattle for silicon valley whee I was to design cell towers for China then.]
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
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