Imagine the current supply/demand structure, even with speculators. Now add 30% to the supply side, projected for the next 30 years. What do you think will happen? Think instead of the current supply/demand structure for the Winchester 63 .22LR rifle, and imagine if somebody found a warehouse with 4 million new in box rifles. What would that do to the price?
There's nothing magical about oil in terms of economics. It can come from anywhere in the world, and the final product is basically indistinguishable. If the US reduces imports by 30%, it will put a glut of oil on the market and prices will drop. OPEC will manipulate what they can, but that just brings things into balance in the new environment.
Last edited by grouseman; 05/17/11.
