Heres a brillant idea... You guys who want exits and blood trails, use slightly bigger guns. Its really that hard hard. When you use the 'minimum' tool for the job, you're not going to get perfect results! Use a 243, 25-06, or the 'gay' 270 and watch the deer drop, or run off with two holes and dumping blood. Problem solved!
I've only pulled one 22 caliber bullet from a deer (64gr PP). I've never had a deer stop a 22 caliber Barnes or Swift.
I've had deer on average go much further when shot with a 30/06 or 35 Whelen than I have with a 223AI. In fact, I've not had a deer go further than 5 yards when shot with a 223AI.
So your guess is purely a guess.
There's no love around here anymore for the 64 gr PP I used to see people using it all of the time.
