From ER doc in New Orleans, little technical.
"I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know..."
Hey fellas, I've been busy the past few days and haven't been able to check back in. All good here so far.
THIS particular quote (which I have deliberately not completely quoted, which as that growth stunted jerk on the Optics forum might emphasize with "HINT... laughing", tells you that I have this story bookmarked as BOGUS) is not to be taken seriously. Here's why.
There are a LOT of overwhelmed docs in places like New Orleans and NYC. I feel for those folks, they're getting their butts kicked. But their experience is NOT the norm. Their experience is a product of 1) high population density; 2) high rate of homelessness and poverty, with a consequent 3) low level of general health in the community. Couple that with the fact that people with severe diabetes, kidney disease, respiratory disease, and heart disease tend to move into centers near hospitals, so you have a higher-than-normal population of very sick people,
on top of the already very high density of population.
So of course we expect the major urban centers to get hit hard.
The problem you get with docs in that sort of front-lines scenario is they often think they are more "in the know" than folks who are standing back and looking at the whole problem. I've been guilty of that myself. And the front-lines doc is usually wrong. He can't see the forest for the trees.
But there's other problems with this story. First and foremost, the doc's numbers don't add up. He says he's discharging 12-15 COVID patients from his ER daily. By extension of ER statistics, that suggests he is admitting 2-5 patients daily. That adds up to 18-20 COVID patients per shift, for this one doctor, and he certainly implies that ALL of his colleagues are seeing similar numbers. His ER, by his numbers, probably has 5 doctors and midlevel providers working every day. So that means this single ER is seeing 80-100 COVID patients per day. There are ten acute care hospitals in New Orleans, so that multiplies out to 800-1000 new COVID cases per day.
But as I said, his numbers don't add up. I was sent this report of 800-1000 new patients per day 2 days ago, which implies it was written 1-2 or more days prior to me getting it. And on Thursday, the day I received it, the TOTAL number of cases in the ENTIRE State of Louisiana was 3405.
In other words, his numbers were either completely fabricated or grossly exaggerated.
Another problem: he cites numbers of patients being admitted, says they don't need to be intubated until Day 10 or later, then goes on to say 80% of patients on ventilators are dying. Again, the numbers don't line up. According to the numbers he provides, his small hospital doesn't have enough ventilators to serve the number of patients he says are being intubated. And they haven't been in hospital long enough yet to know how many are dying.
This tells me these numbers are fabricated. And the story is fabricated. And it's not just me saying so, several other docs I know have read it and agree that it is some truth with a lot of very bad lies thrown in.
It may have been written by a doctor, and if so, he should be ashamed of himself for telling lies. But more likely this was pulled from a variety of stories coming out of Italy, New York, and God knows where else.
So please don't give this bull s h i t story any credence whatsoever. 
