What would the North have done without Texas and Oklahoma oil? Or for that matter the southern timber cut over and sold for seven cents on the acre after the war?

Frankly, I suspect that the South would have more of a Latin flavor to it than it does today. I suspect their would have been expansion into Cuba and Central America. Or at least very cordial relations. The Gulf of Mexico would be a Confederate Lake.

I suspect things would have worked out better for both countries, particularly if there had been no war. The federal leviathan was born then and though the South saw it coming and that was the real reason for the war, the war itself hastened its coming and brought on the conditions to birth it.