I honestly hope Putin has a cooler head than many in our government. In the short term, blowing this up changes nothing. True it does reduce Russia’s leverage, on the other hand it may demarcate the sides a little. If Russia has little hope that Europe will falter this winter and ask for Russian gas because there is no pipeline to deliver, the incentive for escalation might die down a bit.
If, and that’s a pretty big if, this doesn’t escalate, it’s probably going to boil down to a wrecked Ukraine that continues to suck on the teat of the US, Russia getting the territories it wants, as a Europe nearly as divided as it was in the Cold War with the lines farther East.
The real losers though are going to be Ukraine and Europe. Russia will be fine. The US will be fine. Russia will have gotten what it wants at great price. The US will have bloodied the bear’s nose and freshly subjugated Europe. But everything is going to be much more expensive in Europe. Everything. And it’s industrial clout will be much less. Ukraine will be a wreck and it is unlikely that a future Trump or DeSantis administration elected on the promise of America First will continue to send unlimited cash. So, it will continue to be the poorest state in Europe, only completely destroyed.
In the above scenario look for the US to continue to impoverish Germany and build up Poland. Poland will become the chief US proxy in Europe.
On the other hand, it could escalate greatly. Easily. This is a very dangerous time and we have nuts in control.
