rosco1,
One reason most factories have only upped the time they spend making rimfire ammo, rather than adding expensive machines, is they've seen what happened in the last two panics, in 1994-5 and 2008-9. Anybody remember those?
In 1994 the assault rifle "ban" was passed, and a rumor went around that primers were going to be modified to turn into duds within 6 months. People were buying "old" primers that supposedly wouldn't go dud, putting them in PVC pipes and sealing the ends, then burying the pipes in their yards. Consequently it was almost impossible to buy primers for up to a year in some places. Eventually the panic passed, though I wonder how many PVC pipes are still buried.
In 2008 primers were also very scarce, while .22 ammo wasn't. But as in 1994 the panic passed and things returned to normal.
This panic has lasted longer, though nobody can figure out why, since no new national gun laws were passed. But one thing manufacturers learned from the first two panics was NOT to add extra machines or build more buildings right away, because demand was going to subside. And at that point all those expensive new machines and buildings were going to be idle.
In fact several companies went under after '94 and '08, when the panic bubble crashed. This panic has lasted longer, but that doesn't mean people are going to be buying and hoarding all the rimfire ammo in sight forever and ever. We already have the production of primers and powder and .223 ammo catching up with demand, and it will happen with .22 ammo as well. Demand may be greater than it was before the panic, but that will be due to more shooting, not hoarding and profiteering, the two primary causes of scarcity right now.
