Originally Posted by 260Remguy
Originally Posted by Valsdad
I'm not trusting a word the Chinese put out about their issues.

The other factor why it may not have spread quite as badly as it might have, their society ain't the US. Odds are good the Chinese gooberment shut and locked doors on people way sooner than would be socially, and legally, acceptable here.

Just don't catch this stuff yourself, and maybe take what the Omaha news has to say with a big grain of salt.

Stay safe,

Geno



I don't trust the Chinese either, but if COVID-19 actually has a 2 week incubation period where the infected person doesn't show any symptoms, you would think that a densely packed city like Wuhan would have blown up and that infected people would have traveled throughout China and on to the rest of the World. COVID-19 is a pulmonary disease and since China has a very high rate and number of smokers and serious air pollution, low air quality, so you would think that those factors would make the Chinese more vulnerable than they seem to be.

I don't think that there is enough comprehensive data for anyone to make accurate projections of the final outcome. Too many variables that aren't understood well enough to prioritize.

For example, what has made the virus spread so rapidly through Italy and Spain? Why not the same rapid spread throughout the rest of Europe?

Why aren't all of the 10 most populated countries;.Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia seeing similar virus spread?

I take anything said or written about COVID-19 with a big grain of salt.

Some people are going to get sick, some portion of the sick will die. The "experts" will study it and may even figure it out given enough time, but it won't be quick enough for the dead.

The interruption of the economy will likely force some under-capitalized businesses to seek bankruptcy protection and that will provide an unforeseen opportunity for businesses will a stronger financial situation to buy their weaker competition at a discounted price. If I'm still around when this is over, I'll look for opportunities to buy discounted properties, that's what real estate investors do.



Great questions there, wish I had the real answers. Looking at the numbers this morning on that worldometer site, some things just appear "funny". It's probably just slow reporting.

But, I'm waiting, as "the rest of Europe" doesn't look so strong right now.



Germany: 61,556 active cases 3,936 serious/critical 975 cases per million pop 12 deaths per million

China: 1,863 active cases 429 serious/critical 57 cases per million pop 2 deaths per million

USA 212,605 active cases 5,403 serious/critical 690 cases per million pop 16 deaths per million


Something looks fishy? Well, perhaps not really, as some other nations are reporting pretty low deaths per million too.

Back to the rest of Europe though,could a high proportion of those 4000 critical/serious cases in Germany die? Will that boost their numbers closer to Italy and Spain? Is it cultural, as some here have suggested, the Latin countries being a bit more gregarious perhaps, leading to more contact. Heck, even Switzerland has a 60 death per million figure right now, not as high as Italy (230) or Spain (214) but more than the US and Germany.

I think we're going to see better numbers in just a few days. I just heard the first reports of Lagos, Nigeria having cases yesterday, and their Fall season is just starting, what happens when winter hits below the equator? Maybe it's just ramping up there.

Folks here making a bit of a deal about Sweden not taking any "extraordinary" measures like we are, still running buses etc. Well, here's an interesting number, their deaths per million is sitting at 28. Nearly double the US rate. In other words, we could have 10K or so deaths now instead of the 5365 listed this morning.

Is it worth it in regards to the economic costs we're paying? Not sure about anyone else, but it is to me if I don't die. Then again, I'm retired and not likely to see much loss in income other than the little bit that's still in a stock market acct.

Let's hope today goes better in the death count and new cases department. I have a sneaky suspicion it's just hope though.

Geno

The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
(Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)

member of the cabal of dysfunctional squirrels?