How can R Nought be a problem, when only 30,000 people outa 350 million have contracted the virus?
.00009, rounded, of the population.
You can't have it both ways.
Ok math wiz.
With exponential growth - a doubling approximately every four days as observed elsewhere, without mitigation measure put in place:
Tell me when 35,746 (today's USA case count) people becomes essentially 330,000,000 people?
I'll give you some help, here's the formula for exponential growth: x(t) = x0 × (1 + r)^ t
Where:
x(t) is the value at time t.
x0 is the initial value at time t=0.
r is the growth rate when r>0 or decay rate when r<0, in percent.
t is the time in discrete intervals and selected time units.
With an R0 of only 1 ( below current estimates for R0) in the above equation r = 1 ( 1 = 100%). When you get the answer for x(t), be sure to multiply that by 4 days. Heck, use 5 days or six days if you want. That's how long until everyone that hasn't isolated themselves is exposed to the virus.
Remember, unlike seasonal influenza, there is no significant immunity to this novel coronavirus. Every one that is exposed to enough of a viral load will contract the disease. Symptoms of course will vary greatly.
Now, since the pool of those susceptible to this virus = every human on the planet, why not go for extra credit. How long does it take to go from 335,157 cases worldwide to the entire population of the planet?
I know I know I know. If you wash your hands often and don't touch your face, a really long time.
