I kind of seriously doubt that either autopsy report will be the deciding factor in a trial.
There is no disputing the video evidence that Floyd complained he could not breathe, that he lost consciousness, that Chauvin continued to use the force that caused Floyd's complaint and loss of consciousness for almost three more minutes and that Floyd dies as a result. It isn't going to matter a whole lot to a jury. Regardless of pre-existing medical conditions, Floyd was in custody, handcuffed and under control of the arresting officers. At that point, his welfare was in their hands. They had assumed control of him and the situation and it sure as hell looks like they failed to exercise due care with Floyd's life. Did he die from a heart attack, an aneurysm burst, a stroke or whatever, the cause will almost certainly be judged to be the application of force causing whatever it was that killed him. That is certainly going to be one of the prosecution's arguments. The prosecutor will be able to find a doctor willing to state that had Floyd been released the first time he said he could not breathe he would be alive now.
What the jury brings into the courthouse with them will likely be every bit as determinant as the evidence presented to them.
OK, with all that said and if it is true that the restraint caused or more likely contributed to Floyd's death, can you get a murder conviction out of that?
I think it will be enough. They arrested him. They handcuffed him. They placed him in the back of a squad car. They forcibly removed him from from the squad car. They placed him face down on the pavement. One man placed his knee and what appeared to be all his weight on his neck. Another man placed both his knees on his back and all his weight. The restrained Floyd was obviously incapacitated to some degree apparently from drugs, alcohol or perhaps both. The officers had a due care obligation to do no more harm than was absolutely necessary to subdue Floyd. With Floyd at no point in any of the video(s) showing any significant degree of resistance, AND with the officers continuing to keep their weight on their respective positions until nearly 3 minutes after Floyd became unconscious, I think they will be very lucky to avoid conviction. It will be hard to not come to the conclusion that the officers did not let up until Floyd was well and truly dead to their satisfaction. Not only did Floyd not offer any observed significant resistance, but he did appear to be sufficiently impaired so as to be largely incapable of offering much if any resistance.
I think this will be an uphill fight for the defense attorneys to keep their clients out of jail. Those videos will make it very hard to dispute the above facts. The best hope they have is that Floyd started kicking the hell out of the back seat of the squad car and that they had to remove him to put a stop to that. In which case that squad car should show some pretty significant damage, and they have that as evidence of that necessity. What we do not know is what the witnesses will describe about Floyd's and the officers actions.
