Very sad to say but again, this storm has outperformed all model predictions.
155 mph sustained winds (184 mph gusts) and 935 mb pressure. If it doesn't make it to a cat 5, I'll be very surprised. At its current speed, it has 5-8 hours over water and will most likely strengthen the entire time.
WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.
The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
