Actually, this is a clusterfugg caused by man...the main spillway has been damaged for a while and DWR people were well aware of it....there was never any danger of the dam nor the main spillway failing....BUT the high flows into the lake AND the damage to the lower section of the main spillway, gave them an opportunity and EXCUSE to TEST the auxiliary (EMERGENCY) spillway...
I saw the damaged spillway on TV. Given its location (close to the dam itself), the depth of the hole and, the velocity of the water, I think the dam could possibly collapse due to scowering of the rest of the spillway up to the dam supports. I do think the evacuation is a prudent move, give the catastrophe that will result if it collapses.
Can't happen....it rests on bedrock. and the damaged part of the spillway is a LONG ways away from not only the Dam, but the spillway gates themselves.
