The reason all this matters, re comparisons to Teton, is that the two are completely different events. Teton's leak started low on the dam - the earth fill part - at its junction with the bedrock canyon wall. The erosion was entirely in the fill material. Teton's spillway was situated in a very similar manner to Oroville's, on a projecting ridge next to the dam proper. The flow of the breach, when it blew out, was actually scouring the edge of that bedrock as the dam was collapsing, but the bedrock didn't crumble away. Even though it wasn't the best of structural materials (as subsequently admitted). The force of that catastrophic flow didn't seem to have much effect on it.
At Oroville, the erosion is starting outside of the fill area and has some concrete and bedrock to get through before the dam. Not impossible at all, but even at that, it will be a top-down erosion - not blowing out the middle, as in Teton.
I'm afraid the massive annihilation of Californians dreams of some on this thread just isn't gonna happen.
