As I said above, I've learned a lot from this thread along with reading about Phil Shoemaker's encounter while fishing. Especially entertaining is the ensuing "expert" commentary but, I think I can greatly simplify the whole thing into a engineering equation, after all I are one.
In hunting circumstances, once the target is acquired, Success is a function of Marksmanship & Terminal Ballistics. Reams of pixels (and money) are spent on TB but in reality, M matters more. How much? Great question! Evaluating all of the empirical evidence available would make for interesting study but I'll assume this is close:
S = 80%M + 20%TB
Yes, there is a correlation between M & TB related to an animal's physiology. Hitting a whitetail in the "wrong" place with a .458 Win Mag has a higher likelihood of kill than with a .243Win. Just for grins, I grew up with southern whitetail hunters (family) who swore by the need to carry nothing less than a .30-06 into the woods. Never owned one, but I have friends in Sweden that routinely take moose with my personal favorite, the original 6.5 (x55 Swede).
In defensive situations, whether against homo sapiens or other apex predators, the equation is more complex. Two more factors (at least) enter the equation: Presence of Mind (PM) and Speed (S). I've condensed Speed from several other factors such as: accessibility, time to point (not aim!), cycle time, etc. As for PM, the only thing I know that develops this is training and experience.
Now the equation has 4 factors: M, TB, PM, & S. Using the TB & M relationship from hunting and combining with the defensive factors yields this:
S = 40%M + 10%TB + 30%PM + 20%S
The conclusion I draw from this is 90% of success in a sudden defensive encounter relates to the person and 10% to the projectile. Before all the experts reply and to back this up, read the material by Ed Lovette (Army SF, CIA paramilitary, & LEO) which concludes that a snub-nosed .38+P with 158g SWC is the ideal self defense combination for unexpected close quarter encounters. We're not talking offensive battle but simple self defense in an everyday setting.
Kinda like walking to a fishing stream in Phil's case which was no doubt successful because of the 90%. Interesting how many comments focused on the 10% factor.
BTW, I love 'em and own 'em but, long barreled revolver cannons with 12lb DA triggers in deep leather holsters don't offer speed, period.
Last edited by wreckster84; 05/25/22.
