The probability of the universe existing, the probability of it existing and being so vast, whether by the hand of God or not by the hand of God, is so low that it is close to zero. It is just unbelievable that existence exists - no matter how it came about. Yet we know it does exist. The probability argument and the vastness argument therefore does not swing things in favor of "no god", in fact it swings things in favor of "god". If on the balance of probabilities that god exists, then which god? No one has come up with a better explanation of what constitutes god that what we have in the West.
You can't determine the probability. There may well be infinite universes (multiverses) if which case life is then inevitable.
God is just a pacifier placeholder for the superstitious and solves nothing - you can"t solve a mystery with another mystery.
The probability of the universe existing is 100%.
If you buy a ticket in USA Power Lotto, the chance of winning is one in many million perhaps when you buy the ticket. The fact that you may win, doesn't mean there was a 100% chance of you winning before you have won. The fact that the universe does ultimately exist because of the hand of God or because of something else, doesn't mean that there was 100% probability that it would exist, unless you can find irrefutable evidence that it was always going to be created or always existed, with no possibility of an alternate outcome.
You have insufficient data to calculate the probability of our universe existing.
You have no substantiation of there only being two options that you list - the guess fest would be an infinite free for all. Creation alone has many versions - none make sense, none have supporting evidence and they all use magic.
The atheist model, results in a situation that is currently taking place in your country. People turn away from God, have no moral compass, sodomy is rife, abortion is rife for those few remaining people who have heterosexual relationships, unmarried mothers are rife resulting in a huge proportion of uneducated, unintelligent delinquents. Because of the low birthrate caused by rife sodomy, and some of the other factors I mentioned, the society that you knew as a young man has been replaced by a completely different society comprised of Indians, Asians, Middle Eastern and black African people. So the atheist model does not result in a better outcome at all.
Data shows that secular societies generally do better añd have greater life satisfaction. Being free of the objective immoralities of the various religous doctrines is a big plus, and is one of the reasons why your constitution was written to ensure a secular government. Your country has too many Christian zeolots that seem to be driving many of the problems that you have over there.
But your society has self-destructed! It does not exist anymore. What has replaced it are people who worship Hindu gods Visnu, Muslems etc
