I am not a mule deer expert by any means, but hunt them a lot here in MT and have lucked out and drawn some of the best tags in the west.
I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket with one hunt. You might book a hunt in a really good area, but conditions of hot weather, full moon, drought year, and many other things can mess up what seemed like a slam dunk. Just ask the guys who drew rifle deer tags in the AZ Strip in 2007. The hardest hunt any of the outfitters have ever had. Some nice bucks taken, but few.
Would you want the "Hunt of your dreams" to be shattered based on such conditions?
I prefer to go on as many "good" hunts as possible, knowing these good hunts are easier to draw, less expensive, and can be done every other year or so. As such, your odds of finding a really nice buck in a series of "good" hunts is much greater than if you bank on one "great" hunt. And, you get to spend more days/years hunting, rather than dreaming about the year you finally draw that great tag.
Almost every "good" hunt in the west has potential, and almost every "great" hunt is filled with unrealistic expectations (the exception being the AZ Strip in 2008, which was a once in a century kind of year).
If an outfitter tells you the chances of a 190+ buck are good, be skeptical. A 190 buck is so huge that most people think it is a 220 buck. Many outfitters don't see 190 bucks.
Someone mentioned it above. If I had the inclination to go guided and wanted to hunt an area that is relatively easy to draw or had landowner tags, I would contact Scott Limmer at Commanche Wilderness Outfitters. His Eastern Colorado deer hunts are probably the best opportunity to hunt areas with large mule deer and not have to rely on "Lottery" luck to draw a tag. Even with Scott, you will have to hunt very hard to see the kind of bucks you are talking about. Or, get a good streak of luck.
