Hey, First Coues Was Only An Eighty Inch Dink .....
Looks like you might actually be on something, though spring lack bears in Arizona are going to abandon water catchments.
My experience has been to call them. You're going to do much better with that, than watching water -- even though it's been abnormally hot and seasonally dry, this year.
On another note and specifically in reference to your Unit 9 archery elk permit:
Go south of the powerline and into the junpers. Scout that out and stick with it, even if tracks and everyone or everything else says otherwise. Go as far south as you can, but still stay in the junipers and find water and, be patient.
