I think it’s going to kill millions, and there’s nothing we can do about it. I do hope I’m wrong of course. This thing is just getting a foothold.
You're likely not wrong, but on what timeframe?
Covid-19 already has a greater foothold world-wide than SARS or MERS ever had. So I wonder if it will become a seasonal epidemic in the same way that influenza A has? But with an initial 10X+ higher mortality rate. If that is the case, then figure on what, 250-300K deaths a year in the USA?
Originally Posted by kid0917
Originally Posted by Dirtfarmer
When testing becomes more widely available and more infected carriers identified, it’s gonna dilute the mortality rate by a bunch.
This. 40 times higher fatality rate than the flu? I really, really doubt that is remotely true.
As of today, current covid-19 mortality rate worldwide is 6%. The estimate for influenza mortality rate in the USA is .1%. USA covid-19 mortality rate is currently 3%.
So, covid-19 is significantly more deadly. Even if every single person that is now known to have the disease recovers, the mortality rate worldwide will only drop to just below 4%. Keep the same mortality rate of known cases, but double the estimated amount of cases due to under-reporting, and the true mortality rate drops to 3%. Again, much higher than seasonal Influenza.
Now I'm not saying the sky is falling, but stating that concern over covid-19 is "much ado about nothing" is the reverse side of that particular idiot coin. Be cautious for the next month or so. Be especially cautious if you're over 70 or have any pre-existing health issues.
P.S. I'm literally betting my life that in two months, the risk of dying from covid-19 in Asia will be extremely low. Just today booked a flight to HKG, then on to Nanning by high speed rail.
