You keep moving the goalposts.not at all
You posted that the death rate would be exponential. It isn't. wrong,it is
You posted that those admitted to the hospital would increase exponentially. It didn't. wrong, it has
You posted that the cold virus was more deadly than the flu. It isn't.wrong. the flu does not kill two for every one whom recovers, not even in the early days of the season
Hospitalization rate is linear.You repeat yourself, but again,wrong, it is growing exponentially
Death rate is linear.wrong, it is growing exponentially
Fatality rate below 1%.far too early to tell, hope you are right
Everything you've posted has been wrong.Everything I have posted over the last two weeks is on course but, unfortunately, accelerated. I hope as badly as you for that to change SOON.
Those predictions were/are for a course of 12 to 16 weeks beginning Mar 10.
Prediction was that US confirmed case load would double every four days.
Mar 10, 1000 cases
Mar 14, 3000 cases
Mar 18, 9000 cases plus
Mar 22, 33,000 cases plus
Mar 24, 54,800 cases
It appears that infection rate is more than tripling every four days rather than doubling. Far worse than expectations. But yes, some of that may be credited to increased testing rather than all being clinical diagnosis.
Still the fact that in the US we have 775 deaths vs 378 listed as recovered at this point should give one cause for reflection.
Death follows detection of illness by a couple weeks more or less. So the curve for death rate is behind the curve for infection rate by that amount of time.The proper comparison is 775 fatalities divided by the case load at the time those persons were discovered to be sick. 775 fatalities out of 55,000 sick today is meaningless as you have no idea how many of those 55,000 will die in the near future.
If you look at "Worldometer Covid 19 USA", all the stats are there. The data is graphed over time. It is very easy to read. The graph for rate of deaths in USA as that number reaches 550 (two days ago) is the very definition of exponential growth. As is the graph for confirmed cases.
I can not make the graphs copy and paste, or I would show them here. But they are easy to find.
If we have about 55,000 confirmed cases today and expect that to double every four days, and we use a 12 day infectious incubation period before symptoms appear, that means we have just a bit under 1/2 million infected people walking around today spreading their virus. 1/2 million who will be symptomatic by Apr 5.
Apr 5, we will have 4 million contagious individuals walking the streets.
Lord, I wish it were not so. I would love nothing more than to be wrong, for these numbers to not come true.
