Old rule of thumb was about a 50/50 on drawing first time.
I was also told it was about a 30% chance on drawing cold.
Me and a buddy drew three years in a row once, followed up by missing three in a row, even with the bonus points.
Crap shoot at best
dont feel bad, im a resident and if the odds say 33% i draw on the first and sixth year with bonus points....gotta find out who my FIL is bribing at FWP cause for him if the odds say 33% it means he draws a tag 6 out of 8 years.....
A serious student of the "Armchair Safari" always looking for Africa/Asia hunting books