The greatest ball striker of all time said that he hit a shot exactly as he intended about twice a round. He said that you should always play one more club length than what you thought the shot required because odds are much better you’ll mishit it and lose a bit distance than pure it.
I’ve found that to be sound advice and if it was good enough for him, it’s good for all the mere mortals who have followed him.
Things have changed in the 70 or so years since that was said. Clubs are more forgiving, less distance lost for a modest mishit. I'll opine that "one more club than you think" is bad advice today. There are exceptions, but on most tough courses (or greens), up and down from short is easier than from long. This assumes one actually knows how far one hits it on a regular basis, some folks are naturally optimistic.
