Putin's bluff won't work


Originally Posted by ft
Russian president Vladimir Putin’s moves to significantly escalate the war in Ukraine with a thinly veiled reference to his willingness to use nuclear weapons came with a theatrical flourish.

“When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” he said. “It’s not a bluff.”

Yet that is exactly what western officials made of the bombast.

Putin’s announcements on Wednesday to threaten a nuclear strike, mobilise hundreds of thousands of reservists and rapidly annex parts of Ukraine were a desperate attempt to test the strength of western support for Kyiv, said officials and analysts.

But the nervousness of western capitals about the possible use of weapons of mass destruction by the world’s second-biggest nuclear power, as well as the threats of a drawn-out war and a prolonged period of higher energy and food prices, is outweighed by their resolve to call Putin’s bluff, they added.

“This is probably the most delicate phase of this decades-long game of chicken,” said a senior European diplomat. “He is actively trying to sow discord. His hope is to drag it out until winter and use the social discontent to actually widen the very real rifts — both intra-EU and transatlantic — that for now stay below the surface.”

Western officials who questioned the seriousness of Putin’s nuclear warning referenced a similar threat he made in the opening days of the invasion if the west were to “hinder” Russia.

That order for missiles to be put on “special alert” resulted in no change to the readiness of the country’s nuclear forces, according to western intelligence officials, even as vast amounts of western weapons were shipped to Kyiv. US satellites monitor Russia’s nuclear forces for signs of activity.


John Burns

I have all the sources.
They can't stop the signal.