Originally Posted by Bristoe
Putin's possible responses:

I think the first one mentioned is the most likely.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/west-won’t-russia’s-next-move-ukraine-204873

Option 1: Moscow could launch a counter-counteroffensive—one focused on the Black Sea port of Odessa. That city is Ukraine’s last outlet on the Black Sea, and its seizure would effectively make Ukraine a landlocked country. It would also give Russia a stranglehold on Ukraine’s principal economic lifeline, since the majority of Kyiv’s exports and imports flow through Odessa. The loss of that city would be a colossal economic and psychological blow to Ukraine. Given that Russia redeployed sizable numbers of troops and quantities of weapons from eastern Ukraine to the south even before Kyiv’s eastern offensive, there is a high probability that Odessa is now Moscow’s principal target. Already overextended Ukrainian forces in the south would be very hard-pressed to repel a concerted Russian attack.

It's mind boggling how many people up here on the Boobs & Politics page now hate America. What's wrong with you Bristoe, you used to have more sense than this?

Putin doesn't have a snowballs chance in Hades to conquer Odessa. He can't even pull off a Sunday drive invasion to Kyiv, and that was against a much less prepared and much less experienced Ukrainian force.

Russian warships are now hiding well off the coast of Crimea--Ukraine has effectively denied them Crimean ports. Putin has demonstrated he cannot provide the logistics to move men and materials 50-100 miles from his own border effectively when faced with Ukraine resistance. A land attack from Crimea involves crossing 4-5 MAJOR rivers and wetlands. How successful has Putin been with THAT lately? The Ukrainians have demonstrated an astounding effectiveness with minimal equipment and people.

Putin does have at least one submarine hanging in the Black Sea, and undoubtedly could inflict major damage to the Odessa port. But the Russians don't have the chutzpah to occupy Odessa.

Besides, if Putin focuses to the east and attempts to drive along the southern coast of Ukraine to Odessa what stops the Ukes in the north from driving to the Dnipro river, cutting the Russian occupation in two? I bet the Ukes are almost wishing Putin would try it.

The only way Putin has a chance to conquer Odessa is to abandon his borders with Europe, Belarus, Central Asia, and China, move his troops, equipment, and materials to the southern tip of Russia, then prepare an offensive. Given the current demonstrated capabilities of Russia, I figure that would take about two years.......

Last edited by alpinecrick; 09/22/22.
Casey

Not being married to any particular political party sure makes it a lot easier to look at the world more objectively...
Having said that, MAGA.