I think the calf (Western Europe) will come looking for its milk cow (Russia) when winter sets in. Being cold in the dark is probably not going to be acceptable.
We'll see but I think it's Putin that has made the long term fark up. It's going to cause some problems short term for Europe to wean itself off Russian natural gas and oil. No doubt about that. But I think this has been a wake up call for them. They don't want to be dependent on an unstable dictator like Putin for any kind of essential resource anymore. Fortunately for them there are other sources even if it will be difficult making the switch.
On the other hand it's going to be damn hard for Putin to shift that volume of business elsewhere. People just chant India and China like it will be a simple deal for them to pick up the difference. Not so. The primary source of natural gas in Russia is in the northwest portion of the country on the Yamal Peninsula. The Yamal Peninsula is ideally located to pipe gas to Europe. But get a map out and take a look at what it would require to pipe it to China or India. A hell of a lot of new pipeline and infrastructure work that doesn't exist now and would take years to build. The only one currently under construction isn't going to be finished until 2030.
And oil exports will suffer for Russia also. Currently China has a policy to never import more than 15% of such a commodity from any one country so as to not be overly dependent on any one country. And they are already at that 15% level with Russia now. Also Russia doesn't have the shipping capacity to make up the loss of oil they currently pipe to Europe. And thanks to all the businesses and investors that have stopped doing business with them they do not possess the ability to build the fleet of tankers it would take to make up the difference. Also if there is any stoppage in the flow of oil in those lines that oil will turn to immovable sludge during the Russia winter. And if they have to start capping wells because they are no longer in use go ask one of your buddies in the oil business the problems involved with making them usable again. They have received a lot of outside western tech help over the years with stuff like this. Thanks to the boycotts that help is no longer available.
