I've been morbidly playing around with numbers and it looks like we have a fair way to go with prospective covid deaths - maybe this is why QLD and WA governments are so shit scared about reopening and hence keep changing the requirements for reopening - what does their modelling show? The biggest fear they have is how fucked up the hospital system currently is and how it can't cope now let alone with the extra load of prospective covid patients. Good thing that our young Jeannette jumped out of the Chief Health Officer position now before the fan starts up, but surely this timing is co-incidental.

My rubbery figures are based on what is reported on worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) so is subject to the rubberyness that they have.

My assumptions are:
- 1% death rate from covid infections (without vaccination)
- 100% vaccination take-up (ha, this won't happen, but Ozzy looks to be likely to get 90% at the moment)
- 90% vaccination effectiveness for preventing covid death (very assumption)
- 26 million people in Ozland
- assumes no herd immunity blocking and that everyone gets exposed to covid at some point


I get a figure of 26,000 total deaths from covid. We've had 1,743 deaths so far, so the worst is yet to come. Hopefully it won't be this bad but there are susceptible people out there vaccinated or not. What is looking like a raging lock-down success (ignoring all economic damage and business collapse of course) is probably just a protracted delay of the inevitable.

Further lockdowns and political shit fights pending - stay tuned.

Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
Originally Posted by Raspy
Whatever you said...everyone knows you are a lying jerk.

That's a bold assertion. Point out where you think I lied.

Well?