Once the Ukrainians have the land bridge to Crimea under fire control from tube artillery, things are gonna get sporty fast. Putin loses Crimea, he’s done. And he’s gonna lose Crimea.
That's a lotta wishing in one hand!
It’s what’s happening right now. The Ukrainians are being very methodical about degrading Russia’s logistics. The land bridge is very likely untenable as a military reality. Look at a map.
When it happens, to paraphrase Hemingway… it’ll happen very slowly, then all at once.
What Putin then does is the big question. Crimea might very well be a real red line for him, as opposed to all the fake ones already in the rear-view.
